申银万国期货首席点评：中美高层会谈联合声明发布，全球市场信心提振

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The joint statement of the China-US high-level economic and trade talks was released, with both sides agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. This eases global trade tensions and boosts market confidence [1][2][6]. - Domestically, the economy maintains steady growth and flexible policy adjustments. Overseas, major economies have differentiated monetary policies but generally focus on inflation risks. The easing of China - US economic and trade relations helps stabilize global market expectations and promotes international trade and investment [1]. - For different varieties: - Crude oil: Prices rose due to the progress of China - US talks but the涨幅 was later narrowed. Attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][14]. - Gold: With the positive news of tariff easing, gold and silver prices declined. However, geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand still provide support [3][20]. - Stock index: Stimulated by positive factors, the stock index is likely to break upward. For stock index futures, a bullish attitude is recommended, and for stock index options, a long - straddle strategy can be used [4][5][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Main News Concerns - International News: The joint statement of the China - US high - level economic and trade talks was released, with significant tariff reductions and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [6]. - Domestic News: The Minister of Commerce held a round - table meeting with foreign - trade enterprises, stating that the Ministry will help enterprises overcome difficulties and promote foreign - trade development [7]. - Industry News: In April, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new - energy vehicle production and sales growing by 43.8% and 44.2% respectively [8]. 3.2 Overseas Daily Earnings - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and other indices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the S&P 500 rose 3.26%, and London gold fell 2.73% [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - Finance - Stock Index: Affected by the positive news of China - US tariff negotiations, the stock index rebounded. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and use a long - straddle strategy for stock index options [11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond prices generally fell. With the progress of China - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and the price of treasury bond futures declined with increased short - term volatility [12][13]. - Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Prices rose due to China - US talks but the increase was later narrowed. Attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions [2][14]. - Methanol: Methanol prices rose at night. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [15]. - Rubber: Rubber prices rebounded. The short - term trend is expected to continue to rise [16]. - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market may rebound in the short term [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures closed up. The market is affected by inventory and supply - demand fundamentals, and the short - term trend needs to be observed [18][19]. - Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices declined due to tariff easing but still have some support [3][20]. - Copper: Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and other factors [21]. - Zinc: Zinc prices may also fluctuate widely. Market expectations for supply improvement have been partially digested [22]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum contract may be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [23]. - Nickel: Nickel prices may show an oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [25]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price outlook is pessimistic [26]. - Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating. Coke's second - round price increase failed, and a price cut is expected [27]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore demand has support in the short term but may be weak in the medium term [28]. - Steel: The steel market faces a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with short - term exports remaining stable [29]. - Agricultural Products - Oils and Fats: The short - term trend of oils and fats is strong. The supply of soybeans is expected to increase, and the palm oil inventory may rise [31]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The short - term trend of soybean meal is strong, and the increase in US soybean imports may have a negative impact on the domestic market [32]. - Corn and Corn Starch: Corn prices rose this week but may enter an oscillating phase [33]. - Cotton: Cotton prices rose due to macro - level positives. The short - term trend is strong [34]. - Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The market sentiment improved due to tariff easing. The short - term outlook is positive, but the main obstacle is the excess of shipping capacity [35].