生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250513

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may still hit new lows [4] - From sow and piglet data, hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in hog prices [4] - Demand in Q2 and Q3 provides weak support for hog prices and cannot drive obvious price increases [4] - The current increasing hog slaughter weight indicates that the breeding side is still accumulating inventory, which is bearish for the future market. If there is a concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may hit new lows [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On May 12, 2025, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 704 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on spot - futures convergence and delivery games, and contradictions in the far - month contracts are still accumulating, with the futures price fluctuating and adjusting [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 35 lots in positions today, with approximately 71,400 lots held. The highest price was 13,930 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,855 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,870 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, hog supplies from March to December are expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. Piglet data shows that hog slaughter volumes will generally increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off - season, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Market bearish logic: The breeding side has not yet reduced weights, which is actually bearish for the future market; subsequent slaughter volumes are expected to continue to increase; Q2 and Q3 are not the consumption peak seasons, and demand support for hog prices is limited [3] - Market bullish logic: There is still room for an increase in frozen - product inventory, which can support hog prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and Q3 and Q4 are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season; rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase hog breeding costs [3] 3. Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to wait and see for now because although there may be new lows in the spot market in the medium - to - long - term, the uncertainty is high, the short - term weight - reduction driving force in the market is not strong, and the futures price is in a relatively reasonable range [4] 4. Market Overview - On May 12, 2025, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.77 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.14% from May 9 [6] - The hog slaughter price in Henan remained unchanged at 15.11 yuan/kg, while in Sichuan, it decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg to 14.57 yuan/kg, a decline of 0.68% [6] - Among the futures prices, the 01, 03, 09, and 11 contracts decreased, with declines ranging from 0.19% to 0.39%, while the 05 and 07 contracts increased, with increases of 0.39% and 0.22% respectively [6] - The main basis in Henan increased by 105 yuan/ton to 1,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.25% [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data trends of national hog slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, national corn purchase prices in grain depots, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the main contract basis in the Henan region, 07 - 09 contract spreads, and 09 - 11 contract spreads from 2021 to 2025 [7][8][10][11][13]