国新国证期货早报-20250513

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 12, the A - share market showed a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.63%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1308.4 billion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Different futures varieties presented various trends. For example, the CSI 300 Index was strong, while the coke and coking coal futures showed weak rebounds and oscillations respectively. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, palm oil, etc. were affected by multiple factors such as international market conditions, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On May 12, the A - share market was strong. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3369.24 points, up 0.82%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10301.16 points, up 1.72%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2064.71 points, up 2.63%. The trading volume was 1308.4 billion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3890.61, up 44.45 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 12, the coke weighted index had a weak rebound, closing at 1474.0 yuan, up 10.9; the coking coal weighted index had a weak oscillation, closing at 889.6 yuan, up 5.4. For coke, some steel mills lowered the purchase base price, and the coke output decreased slightly this week. However, steel mills had a rigid demand for coke. For coking coal, domestic mines increased production steadily, the coking enterprise's replenishment demand slowed down, and the port coking coal was expected to continue de - stocking [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the US sugar continued to rebound from the low last Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract oscillated upwards on May 12 due to factors such as the rise of US sugar, the relaxation of Sino - US tariff disputes, and the increase in spot quotes. It oscillated and rested at night due to large short - term gains. In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of mid - April, Brazil's central - southern region produced 731,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. Brazil exported 1.5558 million tons of sugar and molasses in April, a year - on - year decrease of 17.65% [4]. Rubber - Affected by the relaxation of Sino - US tariff disputes, the Shanghai rubber oscillated upwards on May 12 and oscillated and rested at night due to large short - term gains. In April 2025, China imported 685,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 31% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to April 2025, the total import was 2.869 million tons, a 23.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [4]. Palm Oil - On May 12, palm oil rebounded slightly from the low. The main contract P2509 closed at 8024 yuan, up 1.75%. As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 337,300 tons, a 5.28% decrease from the previous week and a 15.62% decrease from the same period last year. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared with the same period last month [5][7]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures closed up, hitting a three - month high. The US Department of Agriculture estimated that the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 295 million bushels, lower than analysts' expectations. The US soybean planting rate as of May 11 was 48%, higher than market expectations. In the domestic market, on May 12, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. The M2509 contract closed at 2908 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The inventory of soybean meal stopped falling and rebounded but was still low. In the future, the market may oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [7]. Live Pigs - On May 12, live pig futures oscillated. The LH2509 main contract closed at 13,870 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The current consumer demand for fresh pork is weak, and the market is in a pattern of sufficient supply. The futures may oscillate weakly [8]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, with an increase in positions. The copper concentrate supply is still tight, but the domestic port inventory is sufficient, and the supply of refined copper will still increase slightly. The downstream consumption support may weaken, and the inventory is still decreasing but at a slower rate. The Sino - US economic and trade talks and the domestic monetary policy bring positive signals [8]. Iron Ore - On May 12, the 2509 main contract of iron ore oscillated and rose by 3.16%, closing at 718.5 yuan. Overseas shipments decreased, and domestic arrivals decreased slightly，but were still at a high level. The iron ore market may oscillate in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On May 12, the 2506 main contract of asphalt oscillated and rose by 1.55%, closing at 3481 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt increased, and social inventory accumulated slightly. The demand release was still average, and the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,310 yuan/ton at the night session on Monday. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 124 lots compared with the previous day [9]. Logs - On May 12, the 2507 log contract opened at 790.5, with the lowest at 787, the highest at 810, and closed at 804, with a reduction of 4061 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The port inventory decreased, and the overall demand was weak. Attention should be paid to import data and downstream purchasing and traders' price - holding intentions [9][11]. Steel - On May 12, rb2510 closed at 3082 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3220 yuan/ton. The Sino - US trade talks brought positive news, but the inventory reduction of sample steel slowed down. The export of steel in May and June is expected to continue to increase, especially the demand for steel in the manufacturing industry [11]. Alumina - On May 12, ao2509 closed at 2843 yuan/ton. The production of alumina decreased temporarily, and the inventory decreased. However, once the profit is restored, production capacity will resume on a large scale. The cost has decreased, and the short - term rebound of the futures price will be limited [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 12, al2506 closed at 19,910 yuan/ton. The supply of alumina raw materials is relatively sufficient, and the electrolytic aluminum production is at a high level. The demand support has slightly weakened, and the overall consumption is expected to decline in the future, but there is still some resilience at present [12].