铅锌日评：原料不足引发炼厂减产，铅价下方支撑较强，沪锌区间整理-20250513

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the raw material shortage problem remains unsolved, with some secondary lead smelters reducing production due to insufficient raw materials. The demand is in the off - season. Cost support and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Short - term lead prices are expected to be in a wide - range consolidation, and subsequent macro uncertainties should be continuously monitored [1]. - For zinc, the macro sentiment is stable and positive, but the fundamentals of SHFE zinc are weak. Short - term zinc prices are expected to be in a wide - range consolidation. In the medium - to - long - term, TC still has room to rise, and the center of zinc prices may move down. Subsequent macro sentiment disturbances should be continuously monitored [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day. The closing price of the main SHFE lead futures contract was 16,995 yuan/ton, up 1.13% [1]. - The SHFE lead basis was - 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract was 42,622 lots, up 47.20%, and the open interest was 33,309 lots, down 0.43% [1]. - The LME lead inventory was 251,800 tons, with no change. The SHFE - LME lead price ratio was 8.58, up 1.13% [1]. Industry News - As of May 12, a large lead smelter in Central China will conduct a one - week regular maintenance on its waste battery disassembly production line, and the procurement of waste lead - acid batteries will remain normal [1]. - On May 9, Australian mining company South32 announced that its Hermosa mine project in Arizona reached a key approval node, and the US Forest Service (USFS) officially released the environmental impact assessment draft of the project. The construction of Hermosa has been 40% completed [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The production of primary lead is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries has been rising, and recyclers have limited supplies. Some secondary lead smelters have reduced or stopped production due to cost inversion, and the operating rate has significantly declined [1]. - The demand is in the off - season, and downstream purchasing is weak, providing limited support for lead prices [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,650 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day. The closing price of the main SHFE zinc futures contract was 22,490 yuan/ton, up 1.35% [1]. - The trading volume of the active SHFE zinc futures contract was 229,910 lots, up 64.20%, and the open interest was 118,030 lots, down 0.96% [1]. - The LME zinc inventory was 169,850 tons, with no change. The SHFE - LME zinc price ratio was 8.48, up 1.35% [1]. Industry News - As of May 12, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 8.55 million tons, an increase of 0.14 million tons compared with May 6 and an increase of 0.22 million tons compared with May 8 [1]. - On May 11, Pan American announced a final agreement to acquire all the issued common shares of MAG Silver through an arrangement plan with a total consideration of approximately $2.1 billion. After the transaction, MAG shareholders will hold about 14% of Pan American. MAG Silver holds a 44% stake in the Juanicipio silver - lead - zinc mine [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are continuously rising. The limitation of raw material shortage on smelter production has weakened, and the cost - side support has decreased. The profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, and the production increase trend is obvious [1]. - After the May Day holiday, production - cut enterprises have actively resumed production, but the terminal demand has not improved. In different sectors, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises has significantly increased, but downstream purchasing is mainly for rigid demand; the electronic orders of the die - casting zinc alloy sector are good, but the demand for traditional hardware accessories is weak; the export orders of zinc oxide are uncertain due to the EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires [1].