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上海银行(601229):深度报告:稳健+分红:业务发展稳健,分红率高

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has a stable business development with a high dividend rate, focusing on technology, inclusive, and green finance as part of its three-year development plan [1][29]. - The bank's total assets and net assets are projected to grow, with total assets reaching CNY 3.23 trillion and net assets CNY 254.19 billion by the end of 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.6% and 6.5% respectively [1][18]. - The bank's loan and deposit scales are expanding, with loans reaching CNY 1.41 trillion and deposits CNY 1.71 trillion by the end of 2024, showing year-on-year growth of 2.09% and 4.3% respectively [2][18]. Summary by Sections Leadership and Strategy - The new leadership under Gu Jianzhong is expected to maintain strategic stability, with a focus on the bank's regional advantages in the Yangtze River Delta [16][25]. - The bank's ownership structure is stable, with institutional investors holding a significant portion of shares [17][20]. Business Development - The bank is enhancing its technology, inclusive, and green finance sectors, with significant growth in related loan balances [29][30]. - Retail business focuses on pension, wealth management, and credit cards, with retail AUM reaching CNY 1.02 trillion by the end of 2024, a 6.9% increase from 2023 [1][32]. Financial Performance - The bank's operating income for 2024 is projected at CNY 52.99 billion, a 4.8% increase from 2023, with net profit expected to reach CNY 23.56 billion, reflecting a 4.5% year-on-year growth [4][23]. - The bank's net interest margin is projected to be 1.17% for 2024, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.17 percentage points, but the decline is narrowing [2][18]. Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The bank maintains a strong asset quality with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.18% and a provision coverage ratio of 269.81% as of the end of 2024 [2][15]. - Capital adequacy ratios are improving, with total capital adequacy ratio at 14.21% and core tier 1 capital ratio at 10.35% by the end of 2024 [2][15].