商品期货早班车-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Trade war easing leads to a significant drop in gold prices and a fall in the gold - silver ratio below 100. The logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged, with short - term avoidance recommended and mid - to long - term opportunities for building long positions [1]. - For basic metals, copper is recommended for buying on dips; aluminum may be bullish in the short - term, and buying on dips is advised; alumina is recommended for shorting on rallies; zinc is expected to be weak in the medium - term; lead is likely to trade in a range with a slightly higher bottom; industrial silicon suggests waiting and watching; and tin is recommended for buying on dips [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, for steel, hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions; for iron ore, try short positions in the 2509 contract; and for coking coal, it is advisable to wait and watch [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are expected to be volatile, corn futures prices will consolidate, sugar may be bullish in the short - term and bearish later, cotton suggests waiting and watching, palm oil should focus on relevant reports and policies, eggs and pork prices are expected to be weak, and apples suggest waiting and watching [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE, PP, and styrene are expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; rubber suggests waiting and watching in the short - term and shorting in the medium - term; and crude oil is recommended for shorting on rallies [8][9]. - In the shipping industry, the short - term outlook for European line container shipping is bullish, but be cautious about chasing high prices in the 06 contract [10][11]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Market Performance: Overnight, precious metal prices dropped significantly due to trade war easing. The gold - silver ratio fell below 100 [1]. - News: China and the US cancelled 91% of additional tariffs and suspended 24% of counter - tariffs. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and Goldman Sachs postponed the expected rate - cut time to December [1]. - Economic Data: The US government's April fiscal budget surplus increased by 23% year - on - year to $258.4 billion, and customs tariff revenue reached a record high of $16 billion [1]. - Inventory Data: Domestic gold ETFs had outflows. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 1217 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory remained at 15 tons. London's April gold inventory increased slightly. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9 tons to 924 tons, and India's March silver imports decreased to about 180 tons [1]. - Trading Strategy: Avoid in the short - term due to trade war easing, and consider building long positions in the mid - to long - term. For silver, short on rallies or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Basic Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices fluctuated slightly higher yesterday, but were constrained by the strong US dollar index [1]. - Fundamentals: The supply of copper ore remains tight. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and the back structure weakened [1]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum contract rose 1.66% yesterday [1]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly as smelters maintained high - load production, and demand improved as the operating rate of aluminum products increased [1]. - Trading Strategy: The export of aluminum products may improve, and aluminum prices may be bullish in the short - term. Buy on dips [1]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the 2509 contract rose 0.57% yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased as refineries carried out maintenance and production cuts, while demand increased as electrolytic aluminum smelters maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: The price rebounded in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand surplus remains. Short on rallies [2]. Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the 2506 contract rose 1.35% yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure remains as new smelter capacity increases and imports rise. Consumption decreased in May due to tariff impacts and weak domestic demand [2]. - Trading Strategy: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [2]. Lead - Market Performance: The 2506 contract rose 1.13% yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: Supply may tighten as secondary lead production becomes unprofitable and primary lead plants plan maintenance. Consumption is weak due to the off - season and export difficulties [2]. - Trading Strategy: The price bottom may rise slightly, but it will mainly trade in a range [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The 2506 contract rose 115 yuan yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: Supply is strong and demand is weak. Sichuan's production recovered, and Yunnan reduced production. Demand from the polysilicon and organosilicon industries is limited [2]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and watch as the weekly production has declined [2]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Performance: The 2507 contract rose 1020 yuan yesterday due to short - covering [2][3]. - Marginal Changes: The US postponed a 24% tariff on "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, and the comprehensive tariff rate for power batteries and energy - storage batteries decreased. The impact on lithium demand is controllable [2][3]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand is expected to be more balanced in May. Supply decreased slightly, and demand from the domestic new energy vehicle market was lower than expected. Inventory decreased slightly last week [2][3]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to be bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Hold short positions or take short - term profits [2][3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The PS2506 contract rose 620 yuan yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to be flat or slightly lower in May. Demand from downstream wafer factories is limited [3]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions as the number of registered warehouse receipts is much smaller than the open interest. Pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price reaches 40,000 yuan [3]. Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices fluctuated slightly higher yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: The reduction of tariffs between China and the US boosted the consumer electronics industry, which is positive for tin prices. Domestic warehouse receipts decreased, and London's inventory increased [3]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Steel - Market Performance: The 2510 contract of rebar rose 65 yuan yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: Rebar inventory decreased, and the supply - demand balance is seasonal. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [4]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions. The reference range for RB10 is 3040 - 3110 yuan [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The 2509 contract of iron ore rose 22.5 yuan yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and demand remained strong. However, the profit of steel mills narrowed, and the medium - term supply surplus remains. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [4]. - Trading Strategy: Try short positions in the 2509 contract. The reference range for I09 is 700 - 730 yuan [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The 2509 contract of coking coal rose 3 yuan yesterday [5]. - Fundamentals: Iron ore production increased slightly, and the profit of steel mills narrowed. The first round of price increases was implemented, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and watch. The reference range for JM09 is 850 - 900 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose due to positive USDA reports [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply is loose in the near - term in South America and tight in the long - term in the US. Demand is dominated by South America in the short - term, and US soybean demand is seasonally weak [6]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and domestic soybeans will follow the international market after stabilizing. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean production [6]. Corn - Market Performance: The 2507 contract of corn corrected, and the price of deep - processed corn fell in North China and remained stable in Northeast China [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand is tightening this year. The transfer of grain ownership to channels increases their bargaining power. Substitute imports are expected to decrease, but short - term spot sentiment may cool down [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices will consolidate due to falling spot prices and eased trade tensions [6]. Sugar - Market Performance: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose 0.19% [6]. - Fundamentals: Raw sugar rebounded due to macro and crude oil factors. The price is supported at 17 cents/lb. China's sugar market is in the pure sales period, and inventory is low. The price trend will follow raw sugar [6]. - Trading Strategy: Bullish in the short - term and bearish later. Pay attention to the time of concentrated imports [6]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, US cotton prices fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton prices rose due to tariff policy changes [6]. - Fundamentals: Brazil's April cotton exports were stable compared to March and decreased by 1% year - on - year. China's April textile and clothing exports increased. The expected production of Xinjiang cotton in the 25/26 season may increase [6]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and watch, and use a range - trading strategy [6]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: The Malaysian market was closed yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased seasonally in the producing areas, and exports improved [7]. - Trading Strategy: Palm oil is in a seasonally weak stage. Pay attention to the MPOB report today and production and biodiesel policies later [7]. Eggs - Market Performance: The 2506 contract of eggs rebounded, and the spot price rose [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply is high, and demand is weak due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather and low vegetable prices. Cost provides some support [7]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. Pork - Market Performance: The 2509 contract of pork fluctuated slightly, and the spot price fell slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply will continue to increase, and the impact of secondary fattening on prices will weaken. Demand is in the off - season, and costs are low [7]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to decline with resistance. Pay attention to enterprise sales rhythms and secondary fattening trends [7]. Apples - Market Performance: The main contract of apples rose 0.32% [7]. - Fundamentals: Extreme weather may affect apple production in the new season, especially in Shaanxi. Low inventory and expected production reduction support prices, but consumption needs attention [7]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and watch [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract rose slightly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The basis weakened, and the import window closed [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased as new plants were put into operation and existing plants had more unexpected maintenance. Demand is in the off - season for agricultural films, but there may be a rush to export [8]. - Trading Strategy: Slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Short on rallies for far - month contracts [8]. Rubber - Market Performance: The 2509 contract rose 2.18% on Monday [9]. - Fundamentals: Thai raw material prices were not reported due to the Buddha's Birthday festival. Social inventory increased slightly [9]. - Market Logic: Positive signals from Sino - US negotiations boosted the market [9]. - Trading Strategy: Bullish in the short - term but with limited upside. Wait and watch in the short - term and short in the medium - term [9]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract rebounded slightly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The basis strengthened, the import window closed, and the export window opened [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased as some plants resumed production and new plants were put into operation. Demand from the downstream home appliance and automobile industries is mixed, and there may be a rush to export [9]. - Trading Strategy: Slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Short on rallies for far - month contracts [9]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices rose yesterday due to positive Sino - US tariff negotiation results, but the increase was limited due to supply pressure [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to exceed demand in the second half of the year even if demand is adjusted upwards [9]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term trading range is adjusted to $60 - 70 per barrel for Brent. Short on rallies [9]. Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract rose significantly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The import window closed [9]. - Fundamentals: Pure benzene and styrene inventories are expected to increase slightly in May. Demand from downstream industries is weak, but there may be a rush to export [9]. - Trading Strategy: Slightly bullish in the short - term. Do positive arbitrage on the monthly spread [9]. Shipping European Line Container Shipping - Market Performance: The main contract hit the daily limit after the Geneva meeting [10]. - Fundamentals: Demand improved after tariff negotiations, but European line cargo volume was still moderate. Supply will be adjusted on the US line, and large European line ships are still being launched [10]. - Trading Strategy: Bullish in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high prices in the 06 contract. Do 8 - 10 positive arbitrage [10][11].