铝行业专题之一：供给受限，铝价弹性可期

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the aluminum industry, including China Aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao [5]. Core Viewpoints - The global aluminum supply is constrained, leading to potential price elasticity in the future. The demand for aluminum, particularly in the context of new energy applications and the Belt and Road Initiative, is expected to drive long-term growth [4][10]. - The report highlights that global electrolytic aluminum production capacity is limited, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 0.3% from 2018 to 2024. It is projected that the growth rate will slow down further from 2025 to 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 1% under neutral assumptions [4][10]. - In China, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached its ceiling at 45.17 million tons, with limited room for further growth. The report anticipates that the production growth rate will hit a new low since 2020, leading to a supply-demand gap [4][10]. - The overseas electrolytic aluminum production is also facing slow growth due to energy constraints and unstable operational conditions of existing capacities. The report notes that the overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity CAGR from 2018 to 2024 is only 0.4% [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of recycling aluminum as a long-term solution to balance supply and demand while addressing environmental concerns [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Primary Aluminum - Global production capacity growth is slow, with expectations of a slowdown in global electrolytic aluminum production growth from 2025 to 2027 [10]. - China's electrolytic aluminum capacity has reached its limit, with a focus on optimizing the structure rather than expanding capacity [17]. - Overseas production is hindered by energy constraints, leading to slow growth and unstable operations [60]. Section 2: Recycled Aluminum - Short-term contributions from recycled aluminum to the overall aluminum supply are limited, but it can help fill some gaps in the long term [4]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the demand for aluminum in new energy applications and the Belt and Road Initiative will drive long-term growth, while supply growth is limited, leading to potential price increases [4][10].