农产品日报：中大猪出栏增加，猪价维持震荡-20250513

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is neutral [3][7] Group 2: Core Views - For the pig industry, although the supply of live pigs is increasing monthly, the spot price has not been under significant pressure and has been hovering around 15 yuan. The growth in demand can currently absorb the supply. The spot price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, while the futures market is in deep backwardation. In the long - term, the supply of live pigs will continue to grow, and changes in supply and demand need to be continuously monitored [2] - For the egg industry, demand increased during the May Day holiday, but weakened after the stocking period. Spot prices have been declining, and inventories at all levels have been rising, with breeding profits in a loss state. During the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period, demand will increase slowly, but the short - term supply - demand pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to the Dragon Boat Festival stocking situation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 13,870 yuan/ton, a change of - 55.00 yuan/ton or - 0.39% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of outside ternary live pigs was 15.07 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 15.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.61 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on May 12: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 115.52, down 0.20 points from last Friday. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 115.91, up 0.10 points from last Friday. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.85 yuan/kg, up 1.1% from last Friday; beef was 62.98 yuan/kg, down 0.5%; mutton was 59.94 yuan/kg, up 1.0%; eggs were 7.98 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; and white - striped chickens were 17.27 yuan/kg, down 0.4% [1] Market Analysis - The increase in supply without a rapid price decline indicates that demand growth can absorb the current supply. The spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures market is in deep backwardation. Long - term supply will continue to grow [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral, and the live pig price may remain stable in the short - term [3] Egg Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2506 contract yesterday was 2,927 yuan/500 kg, an increase of 32.00 yuan or 1.11% from the previous trading day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.04 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.11 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.25 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.93 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.11 yuan [4] - Inventory: On May 12, the national production - link inventory was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.39 days from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.73 days, a decrease of 0.46 days from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Demand increased during the May Day holiday and then weakened. Spot prices declined, inventories rose, and breeding profits were in a loss state. During the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period, demand will increase slowly, but the short - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [7]