巨星科技（002444）：关税摩擦缓和，对美业务有望修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The easing of trade tensions between China and the United States is expected to positively impact the company's North American business, with ongoing measures to build overseas capacity and increase terminal prices [1][2] - The company has a significant exposure to the U.S. market, with an estimated risk exposure of approximately $1 billion, and is actively working on capacity transfer and global layout to mitigate tariff impacts [3] - The company is recognized as a leading exporter of tools from China, focusing on product innovation and global operations, which positions it well for long-term market share growth [4] Summary by Sections Trade Relations and Tariff Changes - The recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in a substantial reduction in tariff levels from 125% to 34%, with a temporary pause on some tariffs [2] - The effective tax rate for tool exports from China to the U.S. has decreased to approximately 55% during the 90-day grace period [2] Capacity Expansion and Pricing Strategy - The company has accelerated the establishment of overseas production capacity, particularly in Southeast Asia, to counter tariff impacts, with 23 production bases globally by 2024 [3] - The company has begun to increase terminal prices to pass on tariff pressures, starting in Q2 2025 [3] Market Position and Financial Projections - The company aims to enhance its market share in the global tool market, with projected global market shares of 6.1% for hand tools and 2.1% for tools overall by 2024 [4] - Financial forecasts indicate a net profit of 2.635 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 11.9X [4][6]