华金期货国债期货市场周报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The central bank net withdrew 78.17 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly rose last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is fluctuating at a high level, and the yield is still in a low range. In the medium - and long - term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - Macro and News: Domestically, the joint statement of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US canceled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly canceled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. Abroad, interest rate swap contracts tracking Fed meeting expectations show that the Fed may only cut interest rates by about 55 basis points this year, a significant drop from the 75 - basis - point bet last Friday. Traders expect the first rate cut to start in September [4] - Outlook for Treasury Bonds: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The central bank net withdrew 78.17 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly rose last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is fluctuating at a high level, and the yield is still in a low range. In the medium - and long - term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - Price Trend: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The weekly changes of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were - 0.02%, 0.00%, 0.06%, and - 0.33% respectively [5] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - Yield Changes: Last week, long - term interest rates rose slightly, and the yield spread widened [8] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - Arbitrage Opportunities: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [11] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - TF - T Spread: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures narrowed, and their basis also narrowed [12] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - Term Structure Changes: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than that on May 6th, and the yield has risen [17]