RidersontheCharts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹-20250513

Group 1: Market Trends - The ratio of the Dow Jones Index to gold prices has dropped to 120.7, the lowest since March 2014, indicating overly pessimistic investor expectations for U.S. stocks[5] - The S&P 500 Index to gold price ratio has fallen to 177.1, the lowest since July 2020, suggesting that U.S. stocks are undervalued compared to gold in the long term[5] - U.S. manufacturing investment as a share of non-residential fixed asset investment has decreased to 5.6%, the lowest level since last year, reflecting challenges in attracting manufacturing back to the U.S.[17] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. GDP growth in Q1 was significantly impacted by net exports, marking the largest decline in 35 years[4] - U.S. labor productivity has increased by 65.1% since Q4 1991, significantly outpacing the Eurozone (28.2%) and Japan (20.3%) since Q4 2019[11] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index is at 5.9%, exceeding the 16-year average by one standard deviation, indicating a favorable return outlook for equities[20] Group 3: Investment Flows - The total assets of five major Chinese stock ETFs have risen to $20.85 billion, remaining above $20 billion for four consecutive weeks, driven by renewed investor interest in Chinese assets[14] - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds is at 14 basis points, up 44 basis points from December 2016, indicating improved return expectations[23] Group 4: Currency and Commodities - The three-month USD/JPY options volatility has increased to 12, potentially limiting Japanese corporate earnings and wage growth[8] - The copper-to-gold price ratio has dropped to 2.8, while the offshore RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.2, indicating a narrowing divergence and consistent signals between RMB and copper prices[29]