央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率波动或有所加大

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy, shifting from "timely adjustments" to "flexible grasp" of policy implementation, indicating a focus on existing monetary policy rather than new incremental policies[2] - The central bank emphasizes interest rate risks, suggesting potential short-term adjustments in both short-term and long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield currently in the 1.6%-1.65% range[3] - The central bank's focus on the health of commercial banks may lead to a downward trend in deposit rates, as the net interest margin continues to narrow, impacting the stability of the banking system[4] Credit and Financing - There is an intention to increase credit supply to lower overall financing costs, with a shift towards total credit volume as constraints ease, while promoting consumption remains a key focus of monetary policy[4] - The weighted average interest rate for new loans in Q1 was 3.44%, up by 0.16 percentage points from the end of the previous year, indicating a need for improved efficiency in monetary policy transmission[25] - The report highlights a transition in real estate policy towards optimizing existing policies, particularly focusing on expanding financing support for affordable housing[26] Inflation and Demand - Effective demand improvement is crucial for stabilizing inflation, with fiscal policy expected to be more effective than monetary policy in this context, as current demand remains insufficient[28] - The report notes that the growth rate of social financing and broad money supply (M2) is maintained at 7%-8%, while the CPI growth rate is below 1%, indicating limited effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating demand[28] Risk Factors - Risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, unexpected financial crises abroad, and potential adjustments in long-term interest rates[5]