中美会谈利好超预期，EG价格上涨

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the documents. 2) Core Viewpoints - The Sino - US talks had better - than - expected positive effects, leading to an increase in EG prices. The commodity market was strong, the ethylene glycol market was firm, and the basis strengthened due to tightened spot liquidity [1]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic is that the Sino - US negotiation had positive progress, improving the macro sentiment. On the supply side, the warehouse receipt volume increased significantly, tightening the spot liquidity of ethylene glycol. On the demand side, the near - end polyester load remained high and stable, and the average polyester load in May might rise instead of falling, with strong demand support. US textile and clothing orders are expected to partially recover [2]. - The strategy suggests a short - term cautious bullish view on the single - side trade. It also recommends a positive spread for the inter - period trade and no operation for the inter - variety trade [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4302 yuan/ton (up 84 yuan/ton, +1.99% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4406 yuan/ton (up 106 yuan/ton, +2.47% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 127 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 53 dollars/ton (up 1 dollar/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 88 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference There is no specific data or analysis about international price difference provided other than the mention of the figure "EG international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" [19]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The near - end polyester load remained high and stable, and the average polyester load in May might rise instead of falling, exceeding market expectations. The US textile and clothing orders are expected to partially recover [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 75.1 tons (down 3.9 tons); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 69.2 tons (up 0.4 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 5.9 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 5.5 tons, so the inventory may continue to decline [1].