ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT(300308) 国元证券·2025-05-13 07:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected stock price appreciation exceeding 15% relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing robust growth driven by strong demand for computing hardware and an increase in the proportion of high-speed products, which enhances profitability [2][3]. - The marginal impact of tariffs has weakened, with exemptions for certain semiconductor classifications, allowing the company to mitigate risks through early overseas capacity planning [3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the expansion of both domestic and international demand, particularly in high-speed optical modules [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 238.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.64%, and a net profit of 51.71 billion yuan, up 137.93% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 66.74 billion yuan, a 37.82% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 15.83 billion yuan, reflecting a 56.83% year-on-year growth [1][9]. Demand and Market Dynamics - The demand for computing hardware remains strong, with significant capital expenditures from North American cloud providers, particularly Meta, which increased its capital expenditure guidance from 60-65 billion USD to 64-72 billion USD [3]. - The company is adapting to the rapid increase in domestic demand for high-speed optical modules by reallocating funds to enhance production capacity [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin has improved due to a higher proportion of new structure and high-speed products, alongside cost reductions and improved yield from overseas factories [2]. - The expense ratio has decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 1.35 percentage points in 2024, indicating effective cost control measures [2]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 367.39 billion yuan, 454.74 billion yuan, and 528.94 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 80.83 billion yuan, 99.75 billion yuan, and 118.61 billion yuan [4]. - The report anticipates a continued increase in profitability, with projected PE ratios of 13, 11, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].