Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-13 09:05Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On May 13, the silicon manganese 2509 contract closed at 5810, down 0.62%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon manganese was reported at 5600, up 50 yuan/ton, and the price of raw material manganese ore increased. The production profit of ferroalloys is currently negative, and the enthusiasm for spot production is not high. It is necessary to guard against greater price fluctuations after the decline in demand. The operation should be treated as a volatile trend [2]. - On May 13, the ferrosilicon 2507 contract closed at 5612, down 0.92%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon remained stable. The production profit of ferroalloys is negative, and the overall expectation of steel demand is still weak. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment disturbance under the change of tariff policies. The operation should be treated as a volatile trend [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5810 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5612 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. - The SM futures contract position was 633,897 hands, up 12,179 hands; the SF futures contract position was 489,000 hands, up 7285 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon was -23,693 hands, up 4143 hands; the net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon was -24,370 hands, up 1000 hands [2]. - The SM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 58 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the SF 1 - 9 month contract spread was 40 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - The SM warehouse receipt was 119,280 sheets, up 464 sheets; the SF warehouse receipt was 19,048 sheets, up 172 sheets [2]. Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average value of the manganese silicon index was 5497 yuan/ton, down 105.42 yuan; the basis of the SF main contract was -102 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SM main contract was -210 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block: Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%, Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 394.80 tons, up 23.10 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise start - up rate was 37.53%, down 3.21%; the ferrosilicon enterprise start - up rate was 32.53%, up 1.78% [2]. - The manganese silicon supply was 172,025 tons, down 10,780 tons; the ferrosilicon supply was 102,900 tons, up 3900 tons [2]. - The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 207,100 tons, up 25,300 tons; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 7.37 tons, down 0.99 tons [2]. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 15.44 days, down 1.17 days; the national steel mill inventory of ferrosilicon was 15.44 days, down 0.82 days [2]. - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 125,861 tons, down 2350 tons; the demand for ferrosilicon from the five major steel types was 20,336.30 tons, down 224.10 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 84.64%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 92.11%, up 0.08% [2]. - The crude steel output was 9284.14 tons, up 1687.22 tons [2]. Industry News - From the expected maintenance and resumption data, the silicon manganese output may bottom out and rebound slightly in mid - to - late May, mainly due to the resumption of submerged arc furnaces in the Inner Mongolia production area after previous maintenance [2]. - Seasonal gales or sandstorms have a greater impact on new energy power generation enterprises, and the green power ratio in trading policies has been reduced, which may lead to an indirect increase in electricity costs. The on - grid electricity price in May will be higher than that in April, and the power cost of silicon manganese will increase [2]. - Nissan Motor Company has decided to lay off more than 10,000 employees at home and abroad to improve its operating conditions. Combining with the previous plan, Nissan will cut about 15% of its employees, reaching 20,000 [2]. - According to Mysteel statistics, the sample coverage rate of 5 large magnesium alloy production enterprises in the country is 32%. The national magnesium alloy output in March was 33,000 tons, and in April it was 31,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.33%. The downstream demand of magnesium alloy factories is sluggish, but with the continuous recovery of the price of raw material magnesium ingots, the magnesium alloy market is recovering, and there is no obvious expectation of production reduction [2].