【早间看点】ITS马棕5月前10日出口减少9% USDA预计25/26年度美豆期末库存为2.95亿蒲-20250513

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB March palm oil supply - demand report has a neutral impact, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [25]. - The USDA May supply - demand report has a bullish impact on soybeans [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes of various commodities are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, with their closing prices and daily percentage changes [1]. - Currency quotes such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are also provided along with their percentage changes [2]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions are given [3]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for soybean crushing in different regions are presented [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (May 17 - 21) for US soybean - producing states shows that precipitation is higher than normal, and temperatures vary [6]. 国际供需 - ITS indicates that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, while SGS expects a 1.9% increase [10]. - USDA's 2025/2026 US soybean production, ending stocks, and yield forecasts are close to market expectations, and it maintains previous production forecasts for Argentina and Brazil [10]. - As of May 11, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 48% (higher than expected), and the emergence rate was 17% [13]. - A private exporter reported selling 120,000 tons of soybeans to Mexico [14]. - As of May 8, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 426,077 tons [14]. - As of May 10, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 98.5% [15]. - Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of May increased by 24% compared to the daily average in May last year [15]. - APK - Inform raised Ukraine's 2025 soybean production and 2025/26 export forecasts [16]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, ending a four - day decline [17]. 国内供需 - On May 10, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 80% compared to the previous trading day [18]. - On May 10, the trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the national oil mill operating rate dropped to 54.80% [18]. - As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 5.28% week - on - week, while that of soybean oil increased by 4.40% [18]. - The agricultural ministry adjusted China's 2024/2025 soybean import volume and estimated 2025/2026 import and consumption volumes [19]. - The average purchase price of pigs and the average ex - factory price of白条肉 decreased slightly from April 28 - May 4 [19]. - As of May 12, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased, and prices of various agricultural products changed [20]. 04 Macro News 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 88.4%, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts by December have decreased [22]. - The European Central Bank should stop rate cuts, according to an ECB official [22]. - Canada's national economic confidence index as of May 9 was 48.6 [22]. 国内要闻 - On May 10, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate decreased (CNY appreciated) [24]. - On May 10, the Chinese central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection [24]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with significant tariff reductions [24]. 05 Market Impact Analysis - The MPOB March palm oil supply - demand report shows an increase in ending stocks, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile [25]. - The USDA May supply - demand report has a bullish impact on soybeans, with lower - than - expected ending stocks for 25/26 [25]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 12, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 9.886 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.867 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 11.753 billion yuan in stock index futures [28]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.