美国关税通胀的五个思辨

Group 1: Inflation and Consumption Dynamics - The likelihood of experiencing simultaneous goods inflation and service deflation is low, as historical data shows no such occurrence in the U.S. since 1947[3][4][26] - From 1993 to 2024, the share of actual consumption of goods in the U.S. is projected to rise from 27.5% to 34%, while the share of services is expected to decline from 72.5% to 66%[3][4] - Service prices exhibit greater rigidity compared to goods prices, making service deflation unlikely even during economic downturns[4][18][26] Group 2: Wholesale and Retail Profit Margins - The markup in the U.S. wholesale and retail sectors is high, with 14 out of 23 industries having markups greater than 30%[5][29] - However, the profit margins in these sectors are lower than those in other private industries, with operating surplus to total output at 25.2% compared to 25.4% for the private sector overall[5][29] - S&P 500 retail companies show lower average gross and net profit margins (38% and 8.2%, respectively) compared to the overall index averages (45.5% and 22.2%) [6][35] Group 3: Inventory and Import Dynamics - The inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. remains low, with most industries having a ratio of only 1-2 months[7][43] - In Q1 2025, the U.S. experienced a significant increase in imports, with an annualized rate of approximately $3.31 trillion, marking a 50.9% quarter-over-quarter increase[7][36] - The wholesale sector showed the most significant inventory replenishment, with an average quarter-over-quarter growth of 0.6%[7][36] Group 4: Corporate Responses to Tariffs - A majority of U.S. manufacturers (87%) indicated they would need to raise prices in response to tariff costs, with 76% of manufacturers and retailers choosing to pass on costs to consumers[10][48] - Adjustments in supply chains and pricing strategies are the primary responses to tariffs, with significant differences noted between U.S. and Chinese companies[10][53] Group 5: Historical Context of Tariffs - Current tariffs may lead to overall rates that are comparable to or exceed those of the early 1930s, but the economic context differs significantly from that period[11][57] - The 1930 tariff led to deflation rather than inflation, contrasting with the potential inflationary effects of current tariffs[11][57]