CHINA COAL ENERGY(601898)2025-05-13 09:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.94 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 0.95 billion yuan (-19.4%) year-on-year and a decrease of 0.77 billion yuan (-16.3%) quarter-on-quarter. The increase in coal production and sales, along with cost improvements, partially offset the impact of declining coal prices, but profitability still declined year-on-year. The company is expected to see production increases from its new coal mines in 2026, which could enhance its earnings elasticity. The company's long-term contracts are expected to provide stability in profitability during periods of falling coal prices. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 15.0 billion, 15.3 billion, and 15.7 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 9.06x, 8.88x, and 8.67x based on the closing price on May 7 [2][6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a coal production of 33.35 million tons, an increase of 620,000 tons (+1.9%) year-on-year, but a decrease of 1.91 million tons (-5.4%) quarter-on-quarter. The coal sales volume was 64.14 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons (+0.4%) year-on-year, but a decrease of 1.518 million tons (-19.1%) quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The average selling price of coal decreased in Q1 2025, with the revenue per ton of self-produced coal at 492 yuan, down 106 yuan/ton (-17.7%) year-on-year and down 46 yuan/ton (-8.5%) quarter-on-quarter [8]. - The cost of self-produced coal was 270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton year-on-year, but an increase of 1 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter [8]. - The gross profit margin for self-produced coal was 222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton year-on-year and a decrease of 47 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a total gross profit of 7.3 billion yuan, down 2.7 billion yuan (-26.8%) year-on-year [8]. Market Outlook - The company has successfully connected its An Taibao 2×350MW low calorific value coal power generation to the grid. The Libu coal mine (4 million tons/year) and Weizigou coal mine (2.4 million tons/year) are expected to release production in 2026, indicating potential for production growth. The company’s high proportion of long-term contracts is expected to maintain profitability stability during periods of declining coal prices [2][10].