Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The bottom of the bean market has emerged, and it is expected to stabilize and rebound later. The prices of domestic soybeans and soybean meal have basically stabilized after last week's decline, and the probability of an upward trend in tandem with the external soybean market is high. The prices of oils are expected to remain weak and consolidate at relatively low levels, waiting for a rebound opportunity. In the medium term, oils will maintain a range-bound pattern [3][41][45]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Supply Changes - In March 2025, China's soybean imports were 3.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.8%, the lowest level in the same period since 2008. From January to March, the cumulative imports were 17.109 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [4]. - The USDA's May report shows that Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 175 million tons, an increase of 6 million tons from April; Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is 48.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons; the US soybean production is 118 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons from April, and the global ending stocks have slightly decreased [4]. - In March, the US soybean crush was 6.2 million short tons (about 207 million bushels), significantly higher than the market - expected average of 205.5 million bushels, and reached the upper limit of the forecast range, a 9% increase from February and a 1.5% increase from the same period in 2024 [4]. - Demand Side - The soybean meal inventory is gradually decreasing, and the daily trading volume is average. After the seasonal peak demand, the demand for soybean meal has weakened [4]. - The price of live pigs is gradually rebounding, and the slaughter volume is increasing [4]. - Weather Factors - In the next two weeks, the temperature in South America will be normal [8]. - South American Sales Situation - The sales of old - crop South American soybeans are nearing the end, and Brazilian soybeans are basically sold out. As of April 9, 2023/24 Argentine soybean sales reached 39.8413 million tons, with a progress of 82.64% [11]. - US Soybean Planting Progress - As of May 12, 2025, the US soybean planting progress reached 48%, higher than the five - year average of 37%, but 6 percentage points behind the same period in 2024 [12]. - Arrival Quantity - Soybean imports rebounded significantly in April, and the later supply of soybean meal will be sufficient. The estimated arrival quantities from February to June are 5 million tons, 6.5 million tons, 8.35 million tons, 11.5 million tons, and 10.8 million tons respectively [16][18]. - Soybean Crushing Volume - After the May Day holiday, the soybean supply became more abundant, and the crushing volume continued to increase seasonally [20]. - Domestic Supply - The price of soybean meal has been continuously falling, the soybean meal inventory of crushing plants has slightly increased, which is normal compared with the same period last year, and the soybean port inventory is at the highest level in the same period. Attention should be paid to the downward trend of soybean inventory [26]. - Soybean Meal Demand - The spot basis is high, the peak demand for procurement has passed, and the demand growth rate has significantly declined [28]. - Brazilian Soybean Price - The Brazilian real exchange rate has fallen to a record low, new soybeans are fully on the market, and the sales enthusiasm is high, resulting in a continuous decline in prices [31]. - Fund Position - In May, funds reduced their net short positions in soybeans for the first time, perhaps anticipating a tariff reduction [34]. - Domestic Soybean Price - The soybean price in the Northeast production area has been stable with a downward trend, affected by weak demand and the decline of the Dou - 1 futures. The purchase price of low - protein raw soybeans in some areas of Heilongjiang is between 3800 - 3900 yuan/ton [36]. - Price Spread - The price spread between Dou - 1 and Dou - 2 continues to widen [38]. Oils - Overall Situation - After the mutual reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the crude oil price has gradually stabilized, but the production of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, and the price is expected to remain at a relatively low level. Rapeseed oil faces the risk of policy - based tariff reduction, and soybean oil is difficult to rise significantly due to sufficient supply and the off - season of consumption. In the medium term, oils will maintain a range - bound pattern [45]. - Malaysian Palm Oil - In April 2025, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil was 1.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.62%. The production in different regions has also increased to varying degrees [45][49]. - Indonesian Palm Oil - In January, the production and inventory of Indonesian palm oil decreased. The price of palm oil has been rising, exports have decreased, and the inventory has changed little [50][53]. - Biodiesel Profit - The profit of palm and soybean biodiesel has rebounded [54]. - Soybean Oil - The demand for soybean oil has seasonally declined, the inventory has seasonally increased, and the demand growth rate is at a low level [60]. - Palm Oil - Palm oil imports have increased, the inventory has decreased, and the seasonal demand has weakened [62]. - Rapeseed Oil - The later arrival quantity of rapeseed oil will gradually increase. The supply pressure of rapeseed oil and rapeseed remains high. The arrival quantities from March to June are 110,000 tons, 305,000 tons, 285,000 tons, and 185,000 tons respectively [64]. - Inventory - Rapeseed - The rapeseed oil inventory has changed little, and the rapeseed meal inventory has continuously decreased [67]. - Rapeseed Crushing Volume - The rapeseed crushing volume has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed [73].
宏源期货豆类油脂周报：豆类即将企稳，油脂区间震荡-20250513
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-13 09:32