油脂：马棕油库存超预期，油脂高开低走

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, supported by the China-US tariff joint statement and the USDA report, CBOT soybeans rose, breaking through the trading range since mid - April. The Malaysian palm oil opened higher due to the strong external market but was later suppressed by the unexpectedly high inventory in the April data released by MPOB [6]. - Domestically, as the customs clearance of imported soybeans speeds up, the domestic soybean oil inventory is rising month - on - month with high supply pressure later. The short - term price of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate within a range. The domestic palm oil inventory continues to decline, and the price will mainly follow the import cost. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory continues to rise, but with uncertain medium - to - long - term imported rapeseed supply and the strong recent trend of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. The estimated yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The soybean output is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The US soybean crushing volume is expected to be 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, and the export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [2]. - In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean output reaches a record 426.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% due to Brazil's increased production. The global crushing volume is expected to increase by 3.3% to a record 366.46 million tons, led by Chinese demand. The global export is 188.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, with Brazil's share rising. The ending inventory is estimated to be 124.3 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year [2]. - In April, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 19.37% month - on - month to 1.866 million tons, production increased by 21.52% month - on - month to 1.686 million tons, and exports increased by 9.62% month - on - month to 1.102 million tons [2]. - In the 2025/26 season, China's edible vegetable oil production is predicted to be 30.67 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous year. Among them, soybean oil production is 17.16 million tons and rapeseed oil production is 7.76 million tons, decreasing by 140,000 tons and 80,000 tons respectively due to the decline in soybean and rapeseed imports. Peanut oil production is 4 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons due to better planting benefits and increased policy support. The predicted consumption of edible vegetable oil is the same as the previous year [3][4]. Fundamental Data Charts No information provided. Views and Strategies - International: CBOT soybeans rose due to positive factors, and Malaysian palm oil's rise was suppressed by high inventory [6]. - Domestic: The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil is increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range; the domestic palm oil price follows the import cost; domestic rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6].