Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-13 10:05Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC social inventory maintained a destocking trend with a week-on-week decrease of 0.41% to 651,000 tons, indicating low inventory pressure. The number of PVC parking capacities will gradually increase in May, which may relieve the future supply pressure. After the holiday, the downstream product enterprises resumed work, but the order performance was poor. The joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, stating that the reciprocal tariff rates between the two countries will be reduced to 10% within 90 days, which is beneficial to the export of domestic PVC flooring. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by BIS certification, anti-dumping tax uncertainty and the rainy season; the US tariff on Vietnam has not been alleviated, which may affect the export of Chinese PVC raw materials. In terms of cost, the calcium carbide price is expected to decline, but the uncertainty of power rationing still affects the future price; the ethylene US dollar market is in a stalemate, and the price is expected to remain stable. In the short term, V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 4,770 and resistance around 4,900 [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,837 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the trading volume was 948,143 lots, down 197,842 lots; the open interest was 1,082,509 lots, up 18,197 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 772,350 lots, up 6,550 lots; the short positions were 854,896 lots, down 14,286 lots; the net long positions were -82,546 lots, up 20,836 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China market, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 5,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,683.08 yuan/ton, down 13.08 yuan. In the South China market, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 4,940 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,754.38 yuan/ton, down 13.12 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -157 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,823.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,618 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 538 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 567 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 162 US dollars/ton, down 34 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 164 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 80.34%, up 1.01 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.33%, up 2.33 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 77.75%, down 2.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 409,800 tons, up 6,200 tons; the inventory in East China was 367,400 tons, up 5,600 tons; the inventory in South China was 42,400 tons, up 600 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.1370544 billion square meters, up 77.3344 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 13.05%, down 1.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.85%, down 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.72%, down 1.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.75%, down 1.1 percentage points [3] Industry News - On May 12, the joint statement of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks was released. The reciprocal tariff rates between the two countries will be reduced to 10% within 90 days. Considering the previous 20% tariff imposed by the US on fentanyl, the final tariff rate imposed by the US on China is 30%. On May 13, the cash - on - delivery price of PVCSG5 in the Changzhou market increased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4,620 to 4,720 yuan/ton. V2509 opened higher and closed lower at 4,837 yuan/ton. From May 3 to 9, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 80.34%, up 1.01 percentage points week - on - week. As of May 8, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory (41 companies) decreased by 0.41% week - on - week to 651,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.71%. From May 12 to 18, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 2.01% week - on - week to 45.99%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 48.13% and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.5% to 35.9% [3]