中美关税谈判进展点评：债市建议全面防守

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations exceeded expectations, with US tariffs on China significantly reduced. The 24% tariff will be suspended for the initial 90 days, 10% will be retained, and the remaining additional tariffs will be cancelled, equivalent to a 115 - percentage - point reduction (24% suspended for 90 days). There is a possibility that the 20% fentanyl tariff will be further reduced [2]. - China's export resilience exceeded expectations. In April, despite a 20% drop in exports to the US, total export volume increased by 9.3% year - on - year, reflecting strong industrial competitiveness. The report predicts that China's economy will stabilize internally in 2025 [2]. - After the significant tariff reduction, the money market is expected to gradually tighten. The DR001 weighted average interest rate is expected to rise to around 1.7% in the next month, and the 1Y national - share inter - bank certificate of deposit rate will reach 1.8%. If the 20% fentanyl tariff is also reduced to 0, the DR001 weighted average interest rate may further rise to around 1.8% [2]. - It is recommended to consider allocating 10Y Treasury bonds at 1.8% and 30Y Treasury bonds at around 2.1%. It is expected that there will be no trend - based opportunities in pure - bond investment in the next two years. For 5Y national - share secondary capital bonds, it is advisable to wait until the yield is above 2.1% [2]. - With the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the positive factors for the bond market may have been exhausted. The report recommends a full - scale defensive strategy for the bond market and suggests paying more attention to stocks and convertible bonds in 2025 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content China - US Tariff Negotiation Progress - On May 11, the US and China reached a trade agreement, and on May 12, the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" was released, with significant tariff reductions [2]. China's Economic Situation - In April, China's total export volume increased by 9.3% year - on - year despite a 20% drop in exports to the US, indicating strong industrial competitiveness. Domestic consumption is steadily recovering, the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, and the stock market is slowly rising [2]. Capital Market and Bond Market Outlook - After the tariff reduction, the money market is expected to tighten. The DR001 weighted average interest rate and 1Y national - share inter - bank certificate of deposit rate are expected to rise. The report advises waiting for appropriate yields when investing in Treasury bonds and secondary capital bonds and adopting a defensive strategy for the bond market [2].