瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250513

Report Overview - Report Name: Polysilicon Industry Daily Report 2025-05-13 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply has significantly declined due to over half of the enterprises in the industry conducting equipment maintenance, especially in Xinjiang and Mongolia [3]. - The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment among wafer - pulling enterprises and low procurement willingness. Downstream enterprises expect the silicon material price to fall in the long term and plan to replenish inventory after the price stabilizes [3]. - The polysilicon industry still faces high inventory pressure, mainly concentrated in polysilicon manufacturers. Weak downstream procurement has slowed down inventory digestion, and some manufacturers face difficulties in shipping [3]. - Technically, it has broken through the pressure of the 60 - day moving average, and there may be high pressure around the integer mark of 40,000. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 38,270 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 52,252 lots, down 15,252 lots [3]. - The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 1,730 yuan/ton, down 575 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 30,040 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 40,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 35 yuan/kg, unchanged [3]. - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.34 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars/kg; the basis of polysilicon is 2,050 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan/ton [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,230 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3]. - The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons [3]. - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 596,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 2,906 tons, down 222 tons [3]. - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78.444 million kilowatts, up 11.443 million kilowatts [3]. - The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, up 24,038,530 pieces; the monthly import volume is 9,846,120 pieces, down 2,122,260 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/piece, up 0.01 US dollars/piece [3]. - The comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 22.91, down 0.62 [3] 6. Industry News - As of May 13, the mainstream market price of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon is 32 yuan/kg, the mainstream market price of N - type dense - type polysilicon is 35.5 yuan/kg, the mainstream market price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon is 39 yuan/kg, and the mainstream market price of N - type granular silicon is 37 yuan/kg, all of which are temporarily stable [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a round - table meeting for foreign - trade enterprises to relieve difficulties and provide more support [3] 7. Key Focus - There is no news today [3]