宏观利好注入，市场情绪转好

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The Sino-US friendly negotiation injects short - term benefits, the US dollar rebounds, and the follow - up situation needs further attention. The fundamentals continue the pattern of tight supply, and the downstream demand is expected to slow down. However, the hawkish stance of the US suppresses the upside space. It is expected that the copper price will be mainly volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data tonight [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened high, fluctuated lower, and closed up. The Sino - US friendly negotiation raised the risk preference and the US dollar rebounded, suppressing the copper price. As of May 9, the smelter processing fees continued to expand negative values, and the supply shortage of copper mines intensified. The US copper inventory increased significantly, and the domestic exchange's explicit inventory continued to decline but at a slower rate. There are maintenance plans in May and concentrated plans from July to September. In April, the cable enterprise's start - up rate reached 86.3%, and the orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened high, fluctuated lower, and closed up, at 78090 yuan/ton. The net long positions of the top twenty decreased by 4809 to 120750 hands, and the short positions decreased by 2404 to 112949 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 25 yuan/ton, and in South China was 45 yuan/ton. On May 12, 2025, the LME official price was 9546 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 44 dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of May 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.6 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 2.92 tons, an increase of 9073 tons from the previous period. As of May 12, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory was 8.58 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 18.97 tons, a slight decrease of 1100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 16.35 short tons, an increase of 3208 short tons from the previous period [9].