保供稳价基调，盘面高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is affected by the domestic supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policy, with limited price increase space. The summer fertilizer demand window and export news have improved market sentiment, but the summer fertilizer is in the final stage, the downstream compound fertilizer plant's operating rate may decrease in the second half of the month, and the export policy is not fully clear. The futures price shows a mainly oscillatory and slightly bullish trend, and the upward space is restricted by policies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea opened higher and was relatively strong during the day. The upward trend of upstream factories slowed down, and they still had the intention to hold back sales and limited orders. Due to the domestic supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policy for exports and the unclear policy, the price increase space was limited. The supply side had a stable operating rate, with no planned shutdowns this week and two enterprises resuming production. The demand side showed cautious agricultural fertilizer preparation. Compound fertilizer factories reduced inventory by offering discounts due to rising raw material costs, with squeezed profits and a declining operating rate as summer fertilizer production neared completion. The urea inventory in Northeast China increased this week, but the fertilizer demand increase was expected to be short - lived. The inventory turned to be depleted this week, and the improved demand supported the futures price [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1895 yuan/ton, went down during the day, and finally closed at 1897 yuan/ton, up 0.32%. The position was 275,098 lots (+8,127 lots). Among the top twenty main position seats, long positions increased by 7,146 lots and short positions increased by 1,017 lots. On May 13, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,049, a net increase of 2,149 from the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: The upward trend of upstream factories slowed down, and they still had the intention to hold back sales and limited orders. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were still in the range of 1830 - 1850 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis was flat compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 33 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply data: On May 13, 2025, the national daily urea output was 202,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.68% [9].