Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-13 10:20Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the I2509 contract first rose and then declined. Macroscopically, Sino - US trade negotiations are still challenging, but the tariff cut in this round exceeded expectations. In terms of supply and demand, the current shipment and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore continue to decrease, domestic port inventories have changed from increasing to decreasing, but there is an expectation of increased spot supply of iron ore; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has been slightly increased, and hot metal production remains at a high level. Overall, the sharp rebound of ore prices increases the upward resistance, and the short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 714.50 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan; the trading volume is 714,025 lots, up 9,557 lots. The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts is 30 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 1,734 lots, down 13,057 lots. The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange are 3,200 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 is 99.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.50 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 837 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 813 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 696 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 99 yuan, up 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 98.60 US dollars/ton, up 0.60 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.37, down 0.04. The estimated import cost is 832 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore departing from ports is 2,422.50 million tons, down 117.90 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports is 2,570.00 million tons, down 64.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports is 14,238.71 million tons, down 63.77 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,958.98 million tons, down 376.07 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore is 10,313.80 million tons, up 916.80 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 23 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines is 41.38 million tons, up 1.75 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 65.50%, up 2.44 percentage points. The inventory of iron ore concentrate in 266 mines is 59.16 million tons, down 6.10 million tons. The BDI index is 1,304.00, up 5.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 18.35 US dollars/ton, down 0.02 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 7.56 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.64%, up 0.29 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 92.11%, up 0.08 percentage points. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 9,284 million tons, up 1,687 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 20.63%, down 1.64 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility is 24.85%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.82%, down 3.81 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.15%, down 2.70 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From May 5th to May 11th, 2025, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is 2,422.5 million tons, down 117.9 million tons. The Australian shipment volume is 1,797.2 million tons, up 28.0 million tons, and the volume shipped to China is 1,593.8 million tons, up 75.4 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume is 625.2 million tons, down 146.0 million tons. - From May 5th to May 11th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports is 2,570.0 million tons, down 64.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2,354.6 million tons, down 95.1 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports is 1,261.4 million tons, down 73.3 million tons [2].