Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-13 10:19Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PP2509 is expected to show a fluctuating trend in the short - term, with support around 7020 and resistance around 7150. Supply - side: last week's PP production increased by 7.22% to 77.98 million tons, and capacity utilization rose by 5.37% to 79.75%. This week, production and capacity utilization are expected to decline due to device shutdowns. Demand - side: last week, the average downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.19% to 49.50%. The US tariff impact remains, and domestic demand is seasonally weak. However, the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks statement is beneficial for downstream plastic product exports. Cost - side: trade tensions have eased, and international oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation recently [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) is 7074, up 44; 1 - month contract is 7023, up 45; 5 - month contract is 7139, up 39; 9 - month contract is 7074, up 44. - Volume of polypropylene (PP) (daily, lots) is 418406, up 18569; open interest is 446167, down 11519. - Top 20 long positions: 327948, down 5148; top 20 short positions: 356401, down 5612; top 20 net long positions: - 28453, up 464. - Warehouse receipt quantity: 4068, down 8 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - PP(纤维/注塑):CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) is 919, unchanged; PP(均聚注塑):CFR远东:中间价(日,美元/吨) is 839. - PP(拉丝级):浙江:完税自提价(日,元/吨) is 7240, down 10 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Propylene: CFR China (daily, US dollars/ton) is 801, unchanged; propane: FOB Far East (daily, US dollars/ton) is 569, down 10. - FOB: Naphtha: Singapore (daily, US dollars/barrel) is 61.76, up 1.54; CFR: Naphtha: Japan (daily, US dollars/ton) is 569, up 14.5 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Operating rate of polypropylene (PP) in petrochemical enterprises (weekly, %) is 79.75, up 4.23 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Average operating rate of polypropylene (daily, %) is 49.5, down 0.19. - Operating rate of polypropylene in plastic weaving (daily, %) is 44.8, down 0.2; in injection molding (daily, %) is 56, down 0.2; in BOPP (daily, %) is 57.64, down 1.93; in PP pipes (daily, %) is 36.93, down 0.8; in tape master rolls (daily, %) is 50.72, down 0.07; in PP non - woven fabrics (daily, %) is 37.73, up 0.13; in CPP (daily, %) is 50.5, up 1.62 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of polypropylene (daily, %) is 8.53, down 1.61; 40 - day historical volatility is 10.19, up 0.07. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polypropylene (daily, %) is 11.35, down 0.67; implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 11.35, down 0.67 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On May 12, the joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks was released. The reciprocal tariff rates between the two countries will be reduced to 10% within 90 days. Considering the previous 20% tariff imposed by the US on fentanyl, the final tariff rate imposed by the US on China is 30%. - From May 2 to 8, China's polypropylene production was 77.98 million tons, a 7.22% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 5.37% to 79.75%. - From May 2 to 8, the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 49.50%. - As of May 7, China's total commercial inventory of polypropylene was 89.70 million tons, an increase of 12.66 million tons from the previous period, a 16.43% increase [2].