Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-13 10:19Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with support around 2450 and resistance around 2580 [3]. - The reduction in reciprocal tariff rates between China and the US within 90 days is beneficial for the export of non - aluminum end - products such as clothing, and there is still support from overseas markets like Indonesia [3]. - The decrease in alumina production capacity utilization and limited profit restoration make it difficult to increase the demand for caustic soda, and the replenishment rhythm of non - aluminum enterprises is expected to slow down [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2500 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton; the futures holding volume is 206,761 lots, up 2110 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 9486 lots, down 16,149 lots; the trading volume is 564,466 lots, down 141,950 lots [3]. - The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2487 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 0 yuan/ton, down 2353 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2594 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of caustic soda is 94 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 225 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - The price of steam coal is 676 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 0 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price of alumina is 2875 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Industry News - On May 12, the joint statement of the China - US economic and trade talks in Geneva was released, and the reciprocal tariff rates between the two countries will be reduced to 10% within 90 days, with the final US tariff rate on China at 30% [3]. - From May 2 to 8, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2% [3]. - As of May 8, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 388,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 6.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.72% [3]. 3.7 Inventory and Demand - Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 6.6% to 388,400 tons, at a neutral to high level in the same period [3]. - The production capacity utilization rate of alumina decreased to a low level, and the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.29% to 79.71% week - on - week, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 0.63% to 60.68% week - on - week [3].