银河期货甲醇日报-20250513

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The international methanol device operating rate has reached a high level, and the import volume in May will significantly increase. The downstream demand is stable, and the methanol price has strong short - term support at the bottom. However, in May, with the increase in arrivals, the port will start to accumulate inventory, and the domestic supply is loose. Methanol should be mainly shorted on rebounds, and short - chasing is not recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The futures market showed a strong and volatile trend, closing at 2291 (+46/+2.05%). [3] - In the spot market, prices varied by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia南线 was priced at 2100 yuan/ton, and in consumption areas, Lunan was priced at 2310 yuan/ton. [3] Important Information - From May 12 - 13, 2025, the weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region totaled 52,500 tons (5.25 million tons), an increase of 33,900 tons (3.39 million tons) compared to the previous statistical date, with a month - on - month increase of +182.26%. [4] Logical Analysis - Supply side: The coal - producing areas in the northwest have seen a recovery in coal mine operating rates, but the demand is weak. The raw coal price fluctuates, and the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest has decreased. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously loose. [5] - Import side: The international methanol device operating rate has increased significantly, and all Iranian devices have resumed. The prices in Europe and the United States have fallen again, and the price in Southeast Asia is stable. The import volume in April was 800,000 tons. [5] - Demand side: Traditional downstream industries have gradually recovered, and the operating rate has steadily increased. The operating rate of MTO devices has declined, and some MTO devices are operating at less - than - full capacity or are shut down. [5] - Inventory: The port has been continuously destocking, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The inventory of inland enterprises has been decreasing under rigid demand. However, in May, the port will start to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of inland enterprises has started to increase. [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rebounds. [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see. [8] - Options: Sell call options. [8]