海外札记：中美谈判延长风险缓释期

Economic Overview - The global stock market has shown a slight recovery from April 30 to May 11, 2025, with technology stocks leading the gains[6] - The U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have increased, while natural gas prices surged significantly, with Brent crude oil rising by 0.95%[9] - The market consensus indicates that trade negotiations are progressing positively, which has shaped the market rebound over the past month[6] Trade Negotiations - Recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in a reduction of tariffs, with the overall tariff level on Chinese goods lowered to 30% (20% for fentanyl and 10% for general tariffs) and a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days[22][23] - The outcome of these negotiations is expected to continue influencing market trends and could enhance the current market rebound's scope and sustainability[25] Economic Risks - There are significant risks related to the economic fundamentals, including potential downward trends in U.S. growth and inflationary pressures due to tariffs[27] - The U.S. economy is facing downward growth risks, with factors such as tariffs, immigration policies, and government layoffs contributing negatively[27] - Inflation risks are anticipated to rise, with tariff impacts potentially delaying inflationary effects by about two months[27] Employment Data - In April 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly above the expected 138,000, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%[14] - Job growth was primarily driven by the service sector, while manufacturing and retail sectors showed declines[16] Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a phase where it may revert to trading based on economic fundamentals rather than trade negotiations, as existing policies have observable impacts on the economy[26] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% reflects a cautious outlook on the economy amid ongoing trade tensions[19] Future Outlook - The timing and pace of any shift back to a fundamental trading paradigm remain uncertain, as the current environment is influenced by tariff negotiations and their implications for U.S. economic growth[28] - The U.S. must capitalize on the current risk window to finalize favorable trade outcomes and leverage opportunities for monetary policy easing[28]