Guotai Junan Securities·2025-05-13 11:15Economic Overview - In April 2025, China's export growth was 8.1% year-on-year in USD terms, while imports decreased by 0.2%[16] - The trade surplus in April was stronger than the average in Q1 2025, providing support to the economy[17] - The CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, driven by rising food and travel prices, while the PPI remained low at -2.7% year-on-year[13][15] Market Trends - The A-share market saw a slight increase in trading activity, with average daily turnover rising from CNY 1.10 trillion to CNY 1.35 trillion, and the proportion of stocks rising increased to 84%[22] - Foreign capital inflow into the A-share market was USD 2.1 million, with the proportion of trading by foreign investors dropping to 11.0%[23] Sector Performance - The automotive sector showed strong performance, with passenger car sales increasing by 7% year-on-year during the May Day holiday[27] - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 13.7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the real estate market[28] Policy and Monetary Environment - The People's Bank of China indicated a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with expectations for further interest rate cuts and adjustments to deposit rates[6][7] - The government is expected to accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds to support infrastructure investment[7] Risks and Challenges - Ongoing uncertainties in trade relations and domestic growth policies may impact economic stability[6][12] - The real estate market continues to face pressure, with potential risks to consumer spending and investment recovery[28]