冠通每日交易策略-20250513

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views - The plastics market is affected by factors such as increased supply from new capacity and reduced downstream demand, but the sentiment is boosted by Sino - US trade negotiations, suggesting that short positions should gradually stop profit and exit [3] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus pattern continues, with futures prices hitting new lows and limited room for spot price decline, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [5] - The short - term copper price is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards, affected by Sino - US negotiations and supply - demand fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data [10] - Crude oil supply is under pressure, demand growth is expected to slow down, and it is recommended to stop profit on previous short positions [11][13] - For asphalt, under the situation of weak supply and demand, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [14] - PP is expected to oscillate, with downstream demand recovery slow and new orders limited, but market sentiment is boosted by trade negotiations [15][16] - PVC is still under pressure, but it is recommended to gradually stop profit on short positions due to improved macro - sentiment [17] - Urea prices are expected to oscillate upwards, but the upward space is restricted by policies [18][19] Summary by Variety Plastics - Supply: Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled devices restarted, and new capacity was put into production, but some devices were also under maintenance [3] - Demand: PE downstream开工率 decreased, with agricultural film entering the off - season and other demand being average [3] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years [3] - Recommendation: Gradually stop profit on short positions [3] Carbonate Lithium - Price: The futures price hit a new low, and the spot price is close to the bottom [4][5] - Supply: Production in Jiangxi is stable, while the northern region's开工率 has decreased significantly [5] - Demand: Positive electrode production is expected to increase in May and then enter the off - season, and the impact of US tariffs on global demand may be limited [5] - Inventory: There is a slight reduction in inventory [5] - Recommendation: Wait and see [5] Copper - Price: Affected by Sino - US negotiations and the US dollar, it is expected to oscillate upwards in the short term [9][10] - Supply: The supply of copper ore is tight, and there are many smelter maintenance plans in May and July - September [10] - Demand: Downstream demand shows resilience, with cable enterprise开工率 and orders increasing [10] - Recommendation: Pay attention to the US CPI data [10] Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + is gradually increasing production, and US production is at a high level, with large supply pressure [11] - Demand: The growth rate of global demand is expected to slow down [11] - Recommendation: Stop profit on previous short positions [13] Asphalt - Supply:开工率 has rebounded, and production is expected to increase in May [14] - Demand: Downstream开工率 is uneven, and actual demand needs to be restored [14] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio has slightly increased, still at a low level in recent years [14] - Recommendation: Wait and see [14] PP - Supply: New production capacity is put into production, and there are more maintenance devices, with enterprise开工率 at a relatively low level [15] - Demand: Downstream开工率 continues to decline, and new orders are limited [15][16] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years [15] - Recommendation: Expected to oscillate [16] PVC - Supply:开工率 has increased, and spring maintenance scale is less than last year [17] - Demand: Downstream开工率 is still low, and exports are affected by policies [17] - Inventory: Social inventory is still high [17] - Recommendation: Gradually stop profit on short positions [17] Urea - Supply:开工率 is stable, and some enterprises are resuming production [18] - Demand: Agricultural fertilization is cautious, and compound fertilizer factory开工率 may decline [18][19] - Inventory: Inventory is being reduced [18] - Recommendation: Prices are expected to oscillate upwards, but be cautious of risks [19]