豆粕生猪：美农报告利好，豆粕内外分化

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's May supply and demand report is moderately bullish, with lower-than-expected ending stocks for US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [5]. - The easing of trade tariffs boosts the future demand for US soybeans, while putting pressure on Brazilian soybeans. The domestic soybean meal futures may stop falling and stabilize, but the spot price is expected to be weak [14]. - For live pigs, the short - term supply pressure is moderate, but there is potential pressure in the medium - term. Demand is cooling, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 fell 0.76% to 2886 yuan/ton, and coastal oil mills' quotes dropped by 20 - 80 yuan/ton. The DCE live pig main contract 2509 rose 0.11% to 13885 yuan/ton. The national average ex - farm price of ternary live pigs was flat at 14.71 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybeans main contract rose 1.69% to 1070 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - The temperature in the US Midwest is rising this week, and the weather pattern will become more active. There were scattered showers in the south last week, and the overall weather was dry over the weekend. Some areas may have showers this week. The planting progress and early growth conditions are expected to improve, but long - term dryness may cause problems [3]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 19th week of 2025, the inventory of major domestic oil mills' soybean meal increased by 23.26% week - on - week to 10.12 million tons, and decreased by 81.90% year - on - year [4]. - On May 12, the trading volume of major domestic oil mills' soybean meal decreased by 4.84 million tons to 9.66 million tons. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate dropped by 2.26% to 54.80% [4]. - On May 13, the import cost of US soybeans rose by 80 yuan to 8844 yuan, Brazilian soybeans rose by 86 yuan to 3734 yuan, and Argentine soybeans rose by 40 yuan to 3587 yuan [4]. - On May 13, the daily slaughter volume of key slaughter enterprises increased by 0.03% to 123,701 heads, while the daily出栏量 of key breeding enterprises decreased by 2.5% [4]. - The USDA's May supply and demand report is moderately bullish, with lower - than - expected ending stocks for US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [5]. - The US soybean planting rate is 48%, higher than the expected 47%, and the emergence rate is 17% [5]. - The global oilseed production in 2025/26 is expected to be 692.1 million tons, a 2% increase. Global soybean production is expected to be 426.8 million tons, a 1% increase [5]. - The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in June with an 88.4% probability and in July with a 59.2% probability [6]. 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live pigs, and their basis, as well as the inventory of Chinese soybeans and soybean meal [9][10][13]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - Soybean Meal: US soybean futures reached a three - month high. The easing of trade tariffs and the bullish USDA report boost the price. The domestic soybean meal futures may stop falling, but the spot price is expected to be weak due to increased supply expectations [14]. - Live Pigs: In the short - term, the supply pressure is moderate, but there is potential pressure in the medium - term. Demand is cooling, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15].