铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250513

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - Silicon manganese maintains the trend of production - cut pricing, with the pressure of high supply alleviated, but supply still exceeds demand. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound as short - sellers take profits and leave. Silicon iron's production increased this week, inventory decreased, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased. There is still support from high hot - metal demand, but the high - inventory pattern remains. Wait for a rebound and then short at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly): 5700 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.69%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 6.9% [2] - Silicon manganese price range (monthly): 5500 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.73%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 27.9% [2] 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and recommended entry intervals of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [2] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, buy iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and recommended entry intervals of SF: 5300 - 5400, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2] 3.3 Core Contradiction - Silicon manganese: Maintains production - cut pricing, high - supply pressure eases, but supply still exceeds demand. Warehouse inventory accumulates this week, and warehouse receipts start to decline. There is a short - term rebound possibility [3] - Silicon iron: Production increases this week, inventory decreases, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increases. High - inventory pattern remains, waiting for a rebound to short at high prices [3] 3.4利多解读 (Likely to be "Positive Interpretation" in English) 3.4.1 Silicon Iron - High hot - metal demand supports silicon iron [7] - Silicon iron has fallen continuously, with low valuation and a possibility of rebound [7] - Sino - US tariff negotiations reduce short - term tariff uncertainty, improving market sentiment [7] - Silicon iron factory inventory decreases, with a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% [7] 3.4.2 Silicon Manganese -开工率 and production decline, producers' losses increase, and the willingness to cut production strengthens. Some production areas stop production for maintenance [7] - The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry [7] - Sino - US tariff negotiations reduce short - term tariff uncertainty, improving market sentiment [7] 3.5利空解读 (Likely to be "Negative Interpretation" in English) 3.5.1 Silicon Iron - Silicon iron production increases this week, with a month - on - month increase of 3.9%, and warehouse receipts increase by 7.77% month - on - month [12] - High inventory suppresses silicon iron prices as demand recovery lags behind supply growth [12] 3.5.2 Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese factory inventory continues to accumulate, with a month - on - month increase of 13.9% as of May 11 [12] - High factory inventory and high warehouse receipts increase the total inventory, suppressing price increases [12] 3.6 Silicon Iron Daily Data - On May 13, 2025, silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 114, with a day - on - day decrease of 104 and a week - on - week decrease of 146 [10] - Silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 64, with a day - on - day increase of 76 and a week - on - week decrease of 58 [10] - Silicon iron 05 - 09 spread was - 24, with a day - on - day decrease of 84 and a week - on - week increase of 28 [10] - Silicon iron 09 - 01 spread was - 40, with a day - on - day increase of 8 and a week - on - week increase of 30 [10] - Silicon iron spot prices in different regions had different changes [10] - Lantern coke small materials, Qinhuangdao thermal coal, and Yulin thermal coal prices remained unchanged [10] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts were 19048, with a day - on - day increase of 172 and a week - on - week increase of 1186 [10] 3.7 Silicon Manganese Daily Data - On May 13, 2025, silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 64, with a day - on - day decrease of 78 and a week - on - week decrease of 184 [11] - Silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was 130, with a day - on - day increase of 2 and a week - on - week decrease of 28 [11] - Silicon manganese 05 - 09 spread was - 72, with a day - on - day increase of 8 and a week - on - week increase of 6 [11] - Silicon manganese 09 - 01 spread was - 58, with a day - on - day decrease of 10 and a week - on - week increase of 22 [11] - The double - silicon spread was - 230, with a day - on - day increase of 46 and a week - on - week decrease of 68 [11] - Silicon manganese spot prices in different regions had different changes [11] - Prices of various ores and Inner Mongolia chemical coke remained unchanged [11] - Silicon manganese warehouse receipts were 119280, with a day - on - day increase of 464 and a week - on - week decrease of 5291 [11]