5月12日中美经贸会谈点评：关税风险下降，更加注重经济基本面

Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariff Policies - The US and China acknowledged substantial progress in trade talks, with a return to pre-April 2 tariff statuses and an additional 10% tariff on equal terms[5] - Both parties expressed a desire to avoid economic decoupling, with the US seeking balanced trade and China showing willingness to increase imports from the US[5] - The establishment of a trade communication mechanism aims to reduce misunderstandings and ensure regular exchanges between working groups[5] Group 2: Economic Impact and Market Outlook - The suspension of the tariff war for three months is expected to maintain high export growth, potentially shifting towards mid and high-end industries[6] - The 10% basic tariff will significantly increase the burden on US consumers, with estimated taxable imports rising from $380 billion in Trump's first term to $2.5 trillion in the second term, a 6.6-fold increase[7] - The basic tariff could generate additional revenue of approximately 0.5% of GDP, partially offsetting the current federal deficit rate of 6.7%[7] Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The focus may shift to new tax reduction proposals post-summer, which could be more lenient than the 2017 version, combining tariffs with tax cuts for households and businesses[8] - The likelihood of a US recession within the year has decreased, although inflation may rise due to the basic tariff, potentially prolonging the current interest rate levels by the Federal Reserve[8] - The overall market sentiment has shifted from neutral to cautiously optimistic in the short term, with a stable outlook for domestic capital markets[8]