BOHAI SECURITIES·2025-05-13 11:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that trade talks have provided positive sentiment, leading to a gradual easing of macroeconomic concerns [1]. - In the steel sector, demand may face short-term pressure due to increased rainfall in southern China, but potential economic stimulus policies could stabilize steel prices [3][4]. - For copper, supply tightness is expected due to the shutdown of the Antamina copper mine in Peru, while trade negotiations are improving market sentiment [3][4]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure from weakened downstream demand and adjusted tariffs, leading to expected price fluctuations [3][4]. - Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is diminishing due to optimistic trade talks and easing geopolitical tensions, which may put downward pressure on gold prices [3][4]. - The lithium sector is facing oversupply issues, with prices expected to continue declining in the short term [3][4]. Industry Summary Steel - Steel inventory has shifted from decline to increase due to seasonal demand weakness during the May Day holiday, with total steel inventory at 14.73 million tons, a 1.36% increase from the previous week [17][27]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.74 million tons, a 0.22% decrease from the previous week [21]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 92.09% as of May 9 [25]. Copper - The LME copper spot price was $9,500 per ton, a 3.06% increase from April 30, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 31.96% [48]. - The report notes that the copper market is supported by supply constraints and positive macroeconomic sentiment [41][48]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum spot price was $2,400 per ton, a 0.17% decrease from April 30, with SHFE aluminum inventory down by 5.18% [51]. - The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to mixed market signals [50][51]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure, with COMEX gold closing at $3,329.10 per ounce, a 0.91% increase from April 30 [53]. - The report suggests that geopolitical developments are reducing gold's safe-haven appeal [53]. Lithium and New Energy Metals - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 67,500 yuan per ton, a 2.46% decrease from April 30 [57]. - The report anticipates continued price declines in the lithium market due to oversupply [56][57]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The price of light rare earth oxide praseodymium-neodymium was 423,000 yuan per ton, a 2.92% increase from April 30 [64].