Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. The spot price has started to decline in the past two days, and the 06 contract has begun to trade based on the near - month delivery logic. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Fundamental Information - Price: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas today is 3.15 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.31 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country continued to rise today. The national average price of culled chickens is 5.14 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [3][6][9]. - Inventory: In April, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 will be 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - Sales and Inventory: As of the week of May 1st, the sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was 8,816 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased by 0.03 days and 0.05 days respectively compared to the previous week [8]. - Profit: As of May 1st, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.11 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On May 2nd, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 20.08 yuan/feather, an increase of 0.2 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.2 Trading Logic The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. The spot price has started to decline in the past two days, and the 06 contract has begun to trade based on the near - month delivery logic. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Single - side: Hold the previous short positions and consider partial profit - taking [11]. - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [11]. - Options: Wait and see [11]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides 15 charts, including the spot price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas, the price of egg - laying hen chicks, the price of culled chickens, the feed cost per jin of eggs, the inventory of laying hens and future inventory projections, various spreads and basis, and the profit expectations of egg - laying hen farming and the single - jin average profit trend of fresh eggs [13][17][21][25][29][40][42].
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-05-13 11:28