聚丙烯风险管理日报-20250513

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Previously, the market had strong expectations that tariff policies would force PDH plants to shut down, which strongly supported PP. With the easing of Sino - US relations, the propane supply problem will be resolved, PP supply will no longer be restricted, and the previous support will disappear. The upside space of PP in this rebound is expected to be limited [2]. 3) Detailed Summaries Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.8% [1]. Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton and sell PP2509C7100 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 110 - 130 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [1]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory aiming to prevent price increases, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 6950 - 7050 yuan/ton and sell PP2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [1]. Market Conditions - Futures Price and Spread: On May 13, 2025, the polypropylene main - contract basis was 126 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan/ton from the previous day and 99 yuan/ton from the previous week). PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all increased. The PP1 - 5, PP5 - 9, and PP9 - 1 month spreads also changed [1][3]. - Spot Price and Regional Spread: In different regions, spot prices showed slight daily and weekly changes. The differences between regions also changed [3][5][6]. - Non - standard and Standard Product Spread: The spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products changed daily and weekly [6]. - Upstream Price and Processing Profit: Brent crude oil, US propane, and other upstream prices changed. The processing profits of different production methods such as oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based also changed [6]. Core Contradictions and Factors - Lack of Upward Momentum: Due to the easing of Sino - US relations, the expectation of PDH plant shutdowns has decreased, weakening the support for PP prices. The upside space in the rebound is limited [2][3]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Positive factors include high PP maintenance volume reducing supply and a neutral inventory level with low pressure. Negative factors are the weakening downstream demand and the planned commissioning of multiple plants in the second and third quarters, increasing supply pressure [2][5]