2025年5月美国农业部供需报告解读：2025、26年度全球农产品供需形势预测

Report Title - 2025/26 Annual Global Agricultural Product Supply and Demand Situation Forecast - Interpretation of the May 2025 USDA Supply and Demand Report [1] Core Viewpoint - Based on the data from the May USDA global agricultural product supply and demand report, the report analyzes the supply and demand situations of global grains, oilseeds, US livestock and dairy products, and global soft commodities (cotton) in the 2025/26 period, providing an overview of the future trends of these major agricultural products [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Section Summaries 1. Grains - Overall: In the 2025/26 period, global grain production is expected to reach 2.89676 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 57.28 million tons; total supply will increase by 27.85 million tons to 3.66349 billion tons; total consumption will increase by 38.44 million tons to 2.90735 billion tons; ending stocks will slightly decrease by 10.6 million tons to 756.14 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.72% to 26.01%. Global grains will continue to draw down stocks [4] - Corn and Coarse Grains: Production is expected to be 1.54952 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 47.47 million tons; total supply will increase by 16.84 million tons to 1.86594 billion tons; total consumption will increase by 27.92 million tons to 1.5606 billion tons; ending stocks will slightly decrease by 11.08 million tons to 305.34 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.97% to 19.57%. The US corn planting area will increase by 4.7 million acres to 95.3 million acres, production is expected to increase by 1 billion bushels to 15.82 billion bushels, ending stocks will increase by 385 million bushels to 1.8 billion bushels, and the stock-to-use ratio will rise from 9.28% in the previous year to 11.64% [6] - Wheat: Production is expected to be 808.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.81 million tons; total supply will increase by 4.9 million tons to 1.07373 billion tons; total consumption will increase by 4.38 million tons to 808 million tons; ending stocks will slightly increase by 520,000 tons to 265.73 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.11% to 32.89%. The global wheat supply-demand pattern is basically stable [13] - Rice: Production is expected to be 838.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.9 million tons; total supply will increase by 6.1 million tons to 723.82 million tons; total consumption will increase by 6.14 million tons to 538.75 million tons; ending stocks will slightly decrease by 400,000 tons to 185.07 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.4% to 34.35%. The global rice supply-demand pattern has improved [17] 2. Oilseeds - Overall: In the 2025/26 period, global oilseed production is expected to be 692.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.94 million tons; total supply will increase by 20.12 million tons to 833.4 million tons; total consumption will increase by 18.42 million tons to 580.49 million tons; ending stocks will rise by 1.94 million tons to 143.24 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.4% to 24.68%. Global oilseed supply is relatively abundant [20] - Protein Meal: Production is expected to be 400.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.48 million tons; total supply will increase by 15.56 million tons to 422.5 million tons; total consumption will increase by 14.82 million tons to 394.78 million tons; ending stocks will rise by 960,000 tons to 23.31 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will remain basically flat at 5.9%. The global protein meal market maintains a tight balance [23] - Oils: Production is expected to be 234.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.78 million tons; total supply will increase by 5.08 million tons to 263.6 million tons; total consumption will increase by 4.93 million tons to 228.94 million tons; ending stocks will remain the same as the previous year at 29.14 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.2% to 12.73%. Driven by biodiesel, global oil demand has improved, and the stock-to-use ratio has slightly decreased [23] - Soybeans: Production is expected to be 426.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.95 million tons; total consumption will increase by 13.76 million tons to 424.05 million tons; ending stocks will rise by 7.88 million tons to 123.18 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.7% to 29.32%. South American production increases will offset the decline in US soybean production [25] - Soybean Oil: Production is expected to be 70.77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2 million tons; total consumption will increase by 1.84 million tons to 69.22 million tons; ending stocks will rise by 360,000 tons to 6.06 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will rise by 0.3% to 9.32%. The global soybean oil market is basically balanced, stocks will slightly increase, and the global oil market will maintain a tight balance [27] - Soybean Meal: Production is expected to be 287.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.52 million tons; total consumption will increase by 11.55 million tons to 283.37 million tons; ending stocks will rise by 730,000 tons to 18.39 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will remain basically flat at 6.5%. Global soybean meal demand is growing significantly, and the market will maintain a tight balance with strong supply and demand [29] 3. US Livestock and Dairy Products - Beef: Production is expected to be 11.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 580,000 tons; total consumption will decrease by 540,000 tons to 12.57 million tons; ending stocks will drop by 10,000 tons to 260,000 tons. Although both production and demand have declined, the US beef market will generally remain in a boom cycle [32] - Dairy Products: Production is expected to be 103.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 270,000 tons; domestic consumption is expected to be 85 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 820,000 tons; the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.28% to 6.51%. The dairy stock-to-use ratio will further decline, dairy prices will be low, supply growth will slow down, and consumption will increase [35] 4. Soft Commodities (Cotton) - In the 2025/26 period, global cotton production is expected to be 2.565 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 71,000 tons; total consumption will increase by 30,000 tons to 2.57 million tons; ending stocks will remain basically the same as the previous year at 1.706 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.8% to 66.38%. The global cotton market will continue to have an oversupply situation, and the high stock-to-use ratio will put pressure on cotton prices [37]