棉花产业风险管理日报-20250513

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US tariff reduction is conducive to the recovery of China's textile and clothing export market, but the downstream textile industry is entering the off - season, with orders declining month - on - month and yarn and fabric mills starting to accumulate inventory. The cotton price rebound is limited, and it may maintain a low - level volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather changes in production areas and cotton destocking [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Strategy - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 12,400 and 13,600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1711 and a historical percentile of 0.643 over 3 years [3]. - Inventory Management Strategies: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 13,600 - 13,900 to lock in profits. They can also sell call options (CF509C14000) with a 75% ratio at 200 - 250 to reduce costs [3]. - Procurement Management Strategies: For enterprises with low inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 12,500 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P12400) with a 75% ratio at 200 - 250 to reduce costs [3]. Market Factors -利多解读 - The US has suspended the 24% tariff on Chinese goods for the initial 90 days, retained a 10% tariff, and cancelled the subsequent 91% tariff increase, which is beneficial to the recovery of China's textile and clothing exports [4]. Market Factors -利空解读 - In the 24/25 season, the cotton in northern Xinjiang has high impurity content, and high - quality resources are scarce, leading to a strong cotton basis [6]. - The intended planting area of US cotton in the 25/26 season has declined, and the drought in production areas persists, with a possible decrease in new - season output [6]. - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged [7]. - As of the end of March, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 579.89 million tons, at a five - year peak, indicating abundant domestic supply [7]. - The downstream industry has entered the off - season, with orders declining month - on - month, yarn and fabric mills' finished - product inventory rising slightly, and some factories facing the pressure of reducing production [7]. - Although the Sino - US tariff war has eased, there are still uncertainties, and the market has significant macro risks [7]. Futures and Price Index - Futures Prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13,425, up 45 (0.34%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,070, up 90 (0.69%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,330, up 90 (0.68%); Yarn 01 closed at 0, down 19,500 (-100%); Yarn 05 closed at 0, down 0 (-100%); Yarn 09 closed at 19,545, up 115 (0.59%) [5][8]. - Price Spreads: The cotton basis was 1,054, up 107; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 355, down 45; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 260, unchanged; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 95, up 45; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,335, up 40; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 704, up 82; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 676, up 180 [9]. - Price Indexes: CCI 3128B was 14,384, up 197 (1.39%); CCI 2227B was 12,547, up 147 (1.19%); CCI 2129B was 14,657, up 196 (1.36%); FCI Index S was 13,658, unchanged (0%); FCI Index M was 13,483, unchanged (0%); FCI Index L was 13,297, unchanged (0%) [10].