靴子落地后原油反弹有见顶迹象，但能化板块情绪化影子仍较重，今日与原油出现背离-20250513

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - After the release of the China - US negotiation joint statement, short - term bullish factors have materialized, and the market is still in an emotional state. The new US tariffs on China have been reduced from 165% to 50%, which, although still high, restarts trade and leaves room for future negotiations. After the short - term bullish factors are exhausted, the market will return to fundamental logic after the emotional release [1]. - In the medium term, the rebound of crude oil is much weaker than other risk assets due to the increasing supply surplus expectation under OPEC+ continuous accelerated production. Unless there is an Iranian geopolitical risk, the current stage of crude oil rally is expected to end. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It opened high and closed low today, testing the medium - term pressure level of WTI $63. If it fails to break through, it will test the support at 460. - Strategy: Hold short positions (non - right - hand side). Wait for the anti - package pattern as a signal to short again, with the stop - loss referring to the hourly high at 22:00 last night [4][5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had a limit - up with increased positions today, and the short - term support is moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Observe [9]. (3) PX - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and increased positions in the late session, with the short - term support moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [10]. (4) PTA - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and increased positions in the late session, with the short - term support moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15]. (5) PP - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rebounded with reduced positions today, broke through the pressure/stop - profit level, and is considered to have a short - term trend reversal. The new short - term support refers to today's low. - Strategy: Take profit on the remaining short positions and then observe [17]. (6) Urea - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term support refers to the low on May 8th. - Strategy: Look for low - buying opportunities based on the reversal pattern above the short - term support [18][21]. (7) Methanol - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. It oscillated today and remained below the upper limit of the previous range. - Strategy: Observe mainly on the hourly cycle [22]. (8) Rubber - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It opened high and closed low today, falling back after reaching the upper limit of the oscillating range. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8th. - Strategy: The general idea is to short at high levels, but observe mainly on the hourly cycle under the current oscillating structure [26]. (9) Caustic Soda - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased positions and rose today, with opportunities for long positions based on the reversal pattern, but the strategy has not prompted recently. - Strategy: Observe mainly [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had an oscillating market today, and the short - term support temporarily refers to the 4200 level. - Strategy: Observe due to the divergence between medium - term and short - term trends [31]. (11) Plastic - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and rose in the late session with reduced positions, and the sustainability is questionable. The short - term support is moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Observe on the hourly cycle [32][34].