Report Information - Report Date: May 13, 2025 [3] - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Rebar: The main contract price of rebar dropped from a high level, with a daily increase of 0.88%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Although the Sino-US trade negotiation has made substantial progress and market sentiment has improved, the demand for rebar is expected to weaken seasonally due to the lack of improvement in major downstream industries. The fundamentals of rebar are difficult to improve substantially, and the steel price will continue to face pressure. The steel price will continue to fluctuate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][39]. - Hot-rolled Coil: The main contract price of hot-rolled coil rose first and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.78%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the supply of hot-rolled coil is at a high level, and the demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the overseas risk has temporarily eased and the market sentiment has recovered. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][40]. - Iron Ore: The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level, with a daily increase of 1.06%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. The substantial progress of the Sino-US trade negotiation has improved market sentiment and driven the iron ore price to rebound from a low level. However, the demand is approaching its peak, and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upside space is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4][41]. Summary by Section Industry Dynamics - Automobile Industry: As of May 13, 2025, 20 automobile companies announced their production and sales data for April. BYD ranked first with sales of 380,100 vehicles, followed by SAIC Group and Geely Auto with sales of 376,500 and 234,100 vehicles respectively. Only 7 companies achieved positive month-on-month sales growth in April, with Seres having the largest increase of 45.24%. Sixty percent of the companies achieved year-on-year sales growth in April, with BAIC BluePark having the largest increase of 258.33%, followed by Ankai Bus with a year-on-year increase of 58.22% [6]. - Home Appliance Market: In April, the online retail sales of color TVs increased by 21.3% year-on-year, the average price increased by 15.4% year-on-year, the retail sales of color TVs priced above 5,500 yuan accounted for 36.4%, and the proportion increased by 6.4 percentage points year-on-year. Among different sizes of color TVs, the retail sales of color TVs with a size of 75 inches and above accounted for 31.0%, and the proportion increased by 7.2 percentage points year-on-year. For white goods, the online retail sales of refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, independent dryers, and air conditioners increased by 1.0%, -0.8%, 10.8%, 45.0%, and 34.8% year-on-year respectively [7]. - Steel Industry in Fuzhou: By 2025, Fuzhou aims to increase the proportion of short-process steelmaking output to over 15%. By 2030, technologies such as hydrogen-rich carbon cycle blast furnace smelting, hydrogen-based direct reduction iron in shaft furnaces, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage are expected to achieve breakthrough applications [8]. Spot Market - Steel Products: The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,220 yuan, 3,210 yuan, and 3,334 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,260 yuan, 3,210 yuan, and 3,337 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 2,950 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,130 yuan [9]. - Iron Ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 748 yuan. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 7.56 yuan and 18.35 yuan respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 100.49 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 98.60 yuan [9]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract of rebar was 3,079 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.88%. The trading volume was 1,930,069 lots, and the open interest decreased by 29,285 lots [13]. - Hot-rolled Coil: The closing price of the main contract of hot-rolled coil was 3,215 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.78%. The trading volume was 660,865 lots, and the open interest decreased by 29,461 lots [13]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the main contract of iron ore was 714.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.06%. The trading volume was 434,573 lots, and the open interest increased by 9,557 lots [13]. Related Charts - The report includes charts on steel and iron ore inventories, prices, and production, such as rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, iron ore inventory at 45 ports, and the operating rate of blast furnaces and electric furnaces [15][20][38] Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply-demand pattern of rebar has weakened, and inventory has started to accumulate. Although the supply has decreased slightly due to the maintenance of construction steel mills, the reduction space is limited. The demand for rebar has weakened significantly due to holiday factors, and is expected to weaken seasonally. The steel price will continue to face pressure and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - Hot-rolled Coil: The supply of hot-rolled coil has continued to increase and is at a high level this year, while the demand has weakened significantly due to holiday factors. Although the production of downstream cold-rolled products remains high, the fundamental contradiction is accumulating. The price of hot-rolled coil will continue to face pressure and is expected to stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - Iron Ore: The supply-demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Although the demand for iron ore is relatively good, the incremental space is limited. The supply of iron ore remains at a high level, which will continue to suppress the price. The iron ore price has rebounded from a low level due to improved market sentiment, but the upside space is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [41].
宏观利好兑现，钢矿震荡企稳
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-13 12:18