2025年一季度货币政策执行报告学习与思考：呵护流动性，缓解“外部冲击”

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The monetary policy continues to be "moderately loose" and shifts its focus towards stabilizing growth. Given the increasing external shocks and the need to consolidate the domestic economic recovery, further monetary policy easing can be expected [2][26]. - Multiple quantitative monetary policy tools are continuously used to maintain sufficient liquidity, and the credit resources are mainly directed towards the "Five Major Articles", "consumption", and "stabilizing foreign trade". Price - based tools are still restricted by the net interest margin, and financial institutions may be guided to price rationally [2][26]. - With the increasing downward pressure on the US economy and the weakening of the US dollar's safe - haven property, the pressure on the exchange rate to restrict monetary policy has eased [2][9]. - In the bond market, due to the need for stabilizing growth, the capital market may become looser, and bond yields still have room to decline. The central bank plans to innovate and launch a "technology board" in the bond market to guide bond funds to the innovation field more efficiently [2][26]. - In terms of credit, the short - term credit risk may increase due to the uncertainty of the external environment, and attention should be paid to the progress of trade frictions, the sustainability of economic recovery, and the frequency and intensity of policy repairs [3][27]. 3. Summary by Directory Policy Tone - The monetary policy in Q1 2025 continues the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Politburo Meeting, emphasizing "flexibility" in policy implementation [8]. - Although the domestic economy started well in Q1, affected by the US tariff policy since April, the domestic export has been frustrated. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar's safe - haven property has eased the exchange - rate pressure on monetary policy. The domestic monetary policy will still be "moderately loose" and strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment [9]. Interest Rates - The Q1 report adds the statement of "reducing the bank's liability - side cost". With the adjustment of the MLF operation mechanism, the policy rate system has changed, and it is expected that the deposit rate will decline following the loan rate [10][12]. - In Q1 2025, the weighted average interest rate of new loans issued by financial institutions decreased. The central bank advocates promoting the decline of the comprehensive financing cost of SMEs by clarifying various financing costs [13]. Liquidity - The Q1 report aims to maintain sufficient liquidity. In the short - term, the capital market has changed from a tight - balance to a loose state. In the medium - and long - term, the central bank has adjusted various tools to supplement the capital gap. The reduction of the deposit - reserve ratio in May will release long - term liquidity and relieve the bank's net interest - margin pressure [15][16]. - The central bank has suspended the treasury - bond trading operation in Q1 and may resume it under specific conditions [17]. Credit - The Q1 report emphasizes increasing credit supply and guiding more credit resources to key areas and weak links. In addition to the previous areas, it also highlights "stabilizing foreign trade" [19][21]. - Structural monetary policies will focus on the "Five Major Articles", consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [21]. Bond Market Mechanism - The Q1 report proposes to innovate and launch a "technology board" in the bond market, which will help guide bond funds to the innovation field more efficiently and solve existing problems in the science - innovation bond market [22][23]. - The central bank emphasizes strengthening investors' interest - rate risk management and points out that the pricing efficiency and risk - management ability of the bond market need to be improved [24].