招商研究联合点评：中美经贸会谈联合声明解读

Macro Viewpoints - The recent negotiations resulted in the mutual cancellation of 91% of tariffs and a 90-day suspension of 24% tariffs, with a remaining 10% tariff retained by both sides [9][10][14] - The substantial progress in negotiations is attributed to three main factors: smoother negotiations between China and G2 countries, higher economic dependency of the US on China, and China's enhanced hard power [10][11][12] - The outlook for US-China trade is expected to be short-term easing, with China maintaining a strong position across various dimensions, although uncertainties regarding tariffs may resurface in the medium term [12] Strategy Viewpoints - The optimistic outcomes of the tariff negotiations exceeded market expectations, potentially restoring trade volumes to pre-tariff levels and improving global trade chains and capital market risk appetite [16] - Future trading logic includes the recovery of previously disrupted supply chains, investments in technology themes driven by improved risk appetite, and focusing on exports with supply chain advantages and significant market share growth potential [17] Textile and Apparel Viewpoints - The textile and apparel sector is witnessing stable orders from leading manufacturers, with a focus on companies with strong cross-regional capacity, high profit margins, and solid customer structures [18] - April 2025 export data shows positive trends, with significant year-on-year growth in textile exports from Vietnam and Cambodia, indicating robust demand [19] - Investment recommendations include leading manufacturers such as Jiuxing Holdings, Crystal International, and Shenzhou International, which are expected to show strong profit growth in the coming years [20][21] Home Appliance Viewpoints - The recent tariff negotiations have significantly boosted sentiment in the export supply chain, particularly benefiting companies with global operations like Midea and Haier, which have adapted their supply chains since the first tariff conflicts in 2018 [22][25] - Anticipated price increases in the US retail sector have led consumers to stock up on durable goods, driving demand growth in consumer spending [23] - Recommendations for investment focus on leading home appliance manufacturers and tool/small appliance companies that have successfully expanded their overseas operations [25] Metal Viewpoints - Copper is currently the strongest industrial metal, with demand exceeding expectations and supply issues persisting, indicating a favorable outlook for copper prices [26] - Aluminum prices have shown no rebound since early April, with market focus shifting to supply rigidity as US tariffs ease [27] - Tin prices are expected to rise due to supply recovery and potential downstream replenishment following the recent negotiations [28] - The rare earth sector is experiencing price fluctuations due to export controls, with demand expected to increase if restrictions are eased [29] - Tungsten prices have been rising due to reduced quotas, with strong demand anticipated from the manufacturing sector [30] - Gold prices are under pressure due to reduced risk aversion, with a critical support level around $3,200 [31]