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橡胶甲醇原油:宏观因子乐观,能化再度走强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-13 12:34

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern due to positive macro factors, a delayed natural rubber tapping season in Thailand, and expected improvement in raw material procurement by the domestic tire industry [6]. - The domestic methanol futures price may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern as the macro atmosphere improves and risk appetite in the methanol futures market recovers [6]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern with the improvement of the macro atmosphere and the recovery of risk appetite in the crude oil futures market [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. Bonded area inventory increased by 4.3% and general trade inventory by 0.38% [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 44.80%, a significant week - on - week drop of 14.74% and a year - on - year slight decrease of 4.40 percentage points. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.40%, a significant week - on - week drop of 8.29 percentage points and a significant year - on - year drop of 17.80 percentage points [9]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% but a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April, the cumulative sales were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [9]. - In April 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [10]. Methanol - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a week - on - week slight increase of 3.75%, a month - on - month slight increase of 4.16%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.89%. The weekly average methanol production was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 29.05%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.22%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.21%. The operating rate of acetic acid was 92.58%, a week - on - week significant increase of 6.78%. The operating rate of MTBE was 46.41%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 4.68% [12]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.72 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.43 percentage points [12]. - As of May 9, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 289 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 1 yuan/ton and a month - on - month slight increase of 151 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons [12]. - As of the week of May 8, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 303,900 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 20,500 tons or 7.23%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 10,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 479, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20 [14]. - The average daily US crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 98,000 barrels per day but a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels [14]. - The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, US was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 740,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month slight increase of 580,000 barrels [14]. - The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 0.50 percentage points [14]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and weakening trend. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 175,428 contracts, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1,781 contracts but a significant increase of 15,065 contracts or 9.39% compared with the April average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 96,156 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 10,566 contracts and a significant decrease of 58,149 contracts or 37.68% compared with the April average [15]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 14,995 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | +230 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,447 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | 2,291 yuan/ton | +21 yuan/ton | +156 yuan/ton | - 29 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 436.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 470.5 yuan/barrel | - 2.1 yuan/barrel | - 34.3 yuan/barrel | +1.7 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Related Charts - The report lists various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, WTI and Brent net position changes, etc.) [18][30][42]