铜铝偏强震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - Copper: Today, copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend, with the main contract closing above the 78,000 yuan mark. The recent upward movement of copper prices is largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. Although the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the decline of gold prices at high levels put some pressure on copper prices, in the context of low industrial inventories and a warming macro - environment, copper prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [4]. - Aluminum: Today, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated around the 20,000 yuan mark. The recent increase in aluminum prices is also largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. In a low - inventory situation, the warming macro - environment has pushed up aluminum prices. However, the short - term price rebound to the 20,000 - yuan mark faces technical pressure, and upstream electrolytic aluminum plants have a strong hedging intention due to high profits. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 20,000 - yuan mark [5]. - Nickel: Today, nickel prices showed a weak and volatile trend, with continuous increase in positions. After a short - term rebound to the high in April, nickel prices fell back. The market's increasing expectation of the Philippine ore - ban policy has largely driven the nickel price to bottom out and rebound, while the long - term oversupply of nickel elements suppresses the nickel price. It is expected that the futures price will tend to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support at last week's low [6]. Industry Dynamics Summary - Copper: On May 12, the social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 124,900 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons compared to the 6th [8]. - Nickel: On May 12, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2506 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,750 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,850 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,250 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,650 yuan/ton [9]. Related Charts Summary Copper - Copper Basis: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai [10]. - Copper Monthly Spread: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE copper and the main continuous contract [15]. - Domestic Visible Inventory of Electrolytic Copper: It includes social inventory and bonded - area inventory [12]. - Overseas Copper Exchange Inventory: Relevant inventory data from overseas exchanges [17]. - LME Copper Cancellation Ratio: The chart shows the cancellation ratio of LME copper and inventory [13]. - SHFE Warehouse Receipt Inventory: The chart shows the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [18]. Aluminum - Aluminum Basis: The chart shows the relationship between the average price of aluminum premium and discount in the Yangtze River spot market and the futures closing price of aluminum [22]. - Domestic Social Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum: The chart shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - Aluminum Oxide Trend: The chart shows the futures closing price and the national average price of aluminum oxide [26]. - Aluminum Monthly Spread: The chart shows the monthly spread of aluminum futures [28]. - Overseas Exchange Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum: It includes LME and COMEX inventories [33]. - Aluminum Oxide Inventory: The chart shows the total inventory and port inventory of aluminum oxide [31]. Nickel - Nickel Basis: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic nickel in Shanghai [34]. - LME Inventory: The chart shows the LME nickel inventory and cancellation ratio [36]. - LME Nickel Trend: The chart shows the LME nickel 3M electronic - trading price and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread [38]. - Nickel Monthly Spread: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE nickel [40]. - SHFE Inventory: The chart shows the SHFE nickel inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [42]. - Nickel Ore Port Inventory: The chart shows the nickel ore port inventory [44].