Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] Report's Core Views - The macro factors dominate the continuous rebound of the methanol market. With the recovery of domestic production and imports, the demand is expected to weaken, and the supply increases while the demand decreases. Both the inland and ports may enter the inventory accumulation cycle [2]. - Urea prices continue to fluctuate at a high level. The relevant associations plan to organize self - disciplined urea exports in 2026, with a self - disciplined quantity of about 2 million tons before April. The supply is sufficient, and appropriate exports can relieve the domestic supply pressure, and the short - term market may be strong [3]. - The main contracts of polyolefin futures continue to rise. The macro - positive factors are released, and the market sentiment improves. Although the polyethylene terminal industry is in the off - season, the orders of export - oriented enterprises may improve. The supply - side maintenance provides support, but the weak demand restricts the increase [4]. - The main contract of styrene futures closes at the daily limit. Driven by the rebound of pure benzene prices and the positive macro news, the styrene market trading sentiment improves, and there is a demand to fill the gap on the disk [6]. - Affected by the rebound of oil prices and the expectation of good demand, the prices of PX and PTA continue to rise, and the inventory continues to decline. The price of ethylene glycol is strong, and the short - fiber price rebounds. The bottle chip is in the peak season, but the processing margin is squeezed [7]. - The supply of PVC remains high, and the domestic demand is weak. The tariff policy eases to some extent the export of PVC products. The caustic soda market may fluctuate in the short term and face pressure in the medium term [8]. - The glass futures price drops again due to high inventory and weak demand. The soda ash futures price also declines under the pattern of high inventory and falling costs [9]. Summary by Product Methanol - Macro factors lead to the continuous rebound of the methanol market. The capacity utilization rate of inland plants rises, and most olefin plants are under maintenance. The traditional downstream starts to decline, and the inventory of methanol producers increases. The import volume rebounds, and the MTO plant operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang slightly increases. With the recovery of domestic production and imports, the demand is expected to weaken, and the supply increases while the demand decreases. Both the inland and ports may enter the inventory accumulation cycle [2]. Urea - Urea prices remain high and fluctuate. The relevant associations plan to organize self - disciplined urea exports in 2026, with a self - disciplined quantity of about 2 million tons before April. The demand has limited impact on the market. The compound fertilizer industry's operation rate declines, and the agricultural fertilizer demand has a gap but is scattered. There is new production capacity to be put into operation, and appropriate exports can relieve the domestic supply pressure. The short - term market may be strong [3]. Polyolefin - The main contracts of polyolefin futures rise. The macro - positive factors are released, and the market sentiment improves. The polyethylene terminal industry is in the off - season, but the orders of export - oriented enterprises may improve. The supply - side maintenance provides support, but the weak demand restricts the increase [4]. Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures closes at the daily limit. Driven by the rebound of pure benzene prices and the positive macro news, the styrene market trading sentiment improves, and there is a demand to fill the gap on the disk [6]. Polyester - Affected by the rebound of oil prices and the expectation of good demand, the prices of PX and PTA continue to rise, and the inventory continues to decline. The price of ethylene glycol is strong, and the short - fiber price rebounds. The bottle chip is in the peak season, but the processing margin is squeezed [7]. Chlor - Alkali - The supply of PVC remains high, and the domestic demand is weak. The tariff policy eases to some extent the export of PVC products. The caustic soda market may fluctuate in the short term and face pressure in the medium term [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass futures price drops again due to high inventory and weak demand. The soda ash futures price also declines under the pattern of high inventory and falling costs [9].
化工日报-20250513
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-05-13 13:09