黑色金属日报-20250513

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon are all ★★★, indicating a more distinct long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends and influencing factors for each product. Uncertainties such as demand, inventory, and tariff policies have a significant impact on the market. It is recommended to pay close attention to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1][2][3]. Summary by Product Steel - The steel futures market opened high and closed low today. Due to pre - holiday downstream replenishment overdraft and approaching off - season, demand weakened. Rebar apparent demand dropped significantly, production declined slightly, and inventory increased. Hot - rolled coil demand also declined, production was stable, and inventory increased. High iron - water production led to increased supply pressure, and concerns about negative feedback emerged due to insufficient terminal acceptance. The market's expectation of domestic demand is still pessimistic, and the short - term market may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant policies [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market fluctuated today. Globally, iron ore shipments decreased compared to the previous period but were slightly stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals continued to decline, and port inventories decreased. With low berthing volume, the overall inventory pressure is not large. Terminal demand has declined from its peak, but high iron - water production still supports actual demand. Although there are rumors of production restrictions, there are also positive factors from external trade negotiations. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure of iron - water production peaking and falling in the medium term [2]. Coke - Coke prices remained weak. A price cut is expected on Thursday this week, and daily production has been increasing slightly. Coke inventory has not been effectively reduced and remains at a high level, and traders have no purchasing enthusiasm. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, downstream iron - water production is stable at a high level, and steel billet export orders are good. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports. Due to tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are relatively weak. Production has gradually climbed to a relatively high level this year. The activity in the spot auction market is low, the transaction price has slightly decreased, and terminal inventory is still high. The total coking coal inventory is basically flat, and the production - end inventory pressure remains high. Downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement. The futures price is at a discount, and it is affected by inventory and tariff policies. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5]. Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The manganese ore inventory at national ports has been increasing, with an increase of over 300,000 tons last week. It is expected that about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. With high and stable iron - water production, silicon manganese supply continues to decline, and the overall inventory has increased significantly, suppressing prices. As manganese ore inventory starts to increase, there may be a short - term rebound drive. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Iron - water production remained stable at a high level. Export demand decreased slightly month - on - month, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal was basically flat and remained at a high level, and overall demand was acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply rebounded slightly, market transactions were average, and on - balance - sheet inventory continued to increase. There may be a short - term rebound drive. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [7].