棉花：新年度数据首次公布，报告总体偏中性

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The USDA's May report adjustments for the 2024/25 cotton season are slightly bullish, but the impact on prices may be limited. U.S.-China relations have eased, but the effect on consumption remains to be seen. For the 2025/26 season, the initial forecast shows some improvement in global supply and demand, but there are still significant uncertainties in production estimates and consumption, making the overall impact of the report neutral [1][2] Summary by Relevant Content 2024/25 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - Production increased by 3.9 million tons, consumption by 14.3 million tons, and imports and exports by 2.6 million tons. China's cotton imports were further reduced by 10.9 million tons to 130.6 million tons, and the global ending stock for the 2024/25 season decreased by 9.9 million tons compared to the previous month [1] 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments Production - Global cotton production decreased by 71 million tons compared to the previous year. China's production decreased by 65.3 million tons to 631.4 million tons; India's decreased by 10.9 million tons; Brazil's increased by 27.3 million tons; the U.S.'s increased by 1.9 million tons; Pakistan's increased by 10.8 million tons; and Australia's decreased by 32.6 million tons [1] Consumption - Global consumption increased by 30.4 million tons compared to the previous year. China's consumption decreased by 10.9 million tons, while India's increased by 10.9 million tons, Turkey's by 8.7 million tons, and Vietnam's by 6.6 million tons. Due to uncertainties in global economic growth and trade, a cautious attitude is taken towards consumption data [2] Imports - Global cotton imports increased by 51 million tons compared to the previous year. China's imports increased by 21.8 million tons, Turkey's by 15.3 million tons, and Pakistan's decreased by 17.4 million tons [2] Exports - Global exports increased by 51.7 million tons. The U.S. exports increased by 30.5 million tons, Brazil's by 23.9 million tons, and Australia's decreased by 8.7 million tons [2] Ending Stocks - Global ending stocks decreased by 0.6 million tons compared to the previous year. China's ending stocks decreased by 13.1 million tons, Australia's by 14.2 million tons, Brazil's increased by 16.4 million tons, and the U.S.'s increased by 8.7 million tons [2]