矿山季季观：2025年一季度锰矿供应下降

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, there was a slight shortage of manganese ore in China due to the lack of supply from South32's Australian mines and reduced supply from Comilog. However, the return of South32's Australian mines in May will increase the supply elasticity of manganese ore, so there's no need to worry too much about Comilog's supply reduction [19]. Summary by Company South32 - In Q1 2025, South32's manganese ore production was 47.6 tons (0 tons from Australian mines), a year - on - year decrease of 59.49% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 57.65%. Sales volume was 40.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.91% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 18.27% [2][6]. - The Australian manganese company has been implementing an operation recovery plan since Q3 2024 after being affected by Tropical Cyclone Megan. It is expected to resume export sales in Q2 2025 (about 50,000 tons of manganese ore will arrive at Chinese ports at the end of May). The 25 - fiscal - year production guidance remains unchanged at 1 million tons, and the primary concentrator will restart in Q2 2025 [8]. - From Q3 2024 to Q1 2025, the marketable output of South African manganese decreased by 5% to 1.558 million tons. The sales in Q1 2025 decreased by 18% due to port congestion. The 25 - fiscal - year production guidance remains unchanged at 2 million tons [9]. Eramet - Comilog - In Q1 2025, Comilog's manganese ore production was 1.785 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.32% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 44.3%. Sales volume was 1.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.42% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.55% [6][12]. - In Q1 2025, global manganese ore consumption reached 5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 6%. Supply was stable at 4.6 million tons. There was a shortage of manganese ore supply, and the ore inventory at Chinese ports decreased significantly to 3.7 million tons at the end of March [13]. - The average price of the manganese ore price index (CRU) (CIF China 44%) was $4.6 per dry metric ton, an 8% increase compared to Q4 2024. The average quarterly offshore cash cost was $2.4 per ton - degree, a 7% year - on - year increase [13][14]. - It is expected that global carbon steel production will remain stable in 2025. The supply is expected to continue to decline in the first half of the year and increase again in the second half. The average price in 2025 is expected to be about $4.7 per ton - degree, and the transportation volume will be between 6.7 million and 7.2 million tons [16]. Tshipi - In Q1 2025, Tshipi exported 777,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 13.78%. The supply level was in line with seasonal patterns, and sales volume was not increased when the manganese ore price was relatively high [17].